Bitcoin price predictions were aggressively bullish early on Friday as CoinDesk reported that the perpetual funding ratio, based on a 7-day moving average, has fallen to its most negative level since 2023. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria has targeted $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s overselling positioning unravels.
summation
- BTC was trading around $74,700 in the Asian morning on Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day, putting a pause on a 10-day global stock rally ahead of the expiration of the Iran ceasefire on April 22.
- The 7-day moving average funding rate has fallen to around -0.005%, per Glassnode data. This was last seen when the FTX crash bottomed in late 2022, with all previous historical episodes of similar funding extremes (March 2020, mid-2021, and August 2024) coinciding with local rock bottom prices.
- On-chain data shows that many active Bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their cost basis. This means that a squeeze-driven rally could face substantial selling pressure from holders of BTC in the $75,000-$95,000 range in 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions have turned aggressively bullish since Friday morning. CoinDesk reported that the perpetual funding rate fell to its most negative level since 2023 on a 7-day moving average. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria has targeted $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s overselling positioning unravels.
BTC changed hands near $74,700 in early Asian trading on Friday. It had risen 3.5% on the week but was down 0.4% on the day as a 10-day global stock rally was paused ahead of an Iran ceasefire deadline next week. Despite continued negative funding, assets rose from the mid-$60,000s through March and April. This means that shorts have been paying off buyers for several weeks while the price continues to rise.
The funding rate is a periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract, designed to bring the price of the contract in line with the spot price. When interest rates become negative, short sellers invest in long positions. This only happens when speculative positioning is heavily tilted relative to price. According to Glassnode data, the 7-day moving average rate has fallen to around -0.005%, a figure last seen at the bottom of the FTX selloff in late 2022.
“These negative financing rates tell us that the market is very tight,” Reis-Faria said. “Nonetheless, if Bitcoin continues to climb higher, many of those positions could be liquidated and the move could accelerate quickly.” He said he was targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days once the short base was released, and cited buying pressure from large corporate accumulators as the most likely factor to trigger a forced liquidation of the short base.
All previous historical episodes of similar financing extremes have coincided with local price floors. The March 2020, mid-2021, and late-2022 FTX collapses, the August 2024 yen carry trade liquidation, and the April 2025 Liberation Day sell-off all featured extreme negative funding that was resolved by a sharp recovery. For traders tracking truce hopes starting from the April 22nd deadline, this historical pattern reinforces optimism about the near-term setup.
What Can Stop a Squeeze Rally?
On-chain data introduces a structural counterpoint. Many active Bitcoin holders are currently underwater compared to the cost of acquisition. That means a squeeze-driven rally approaching cost basis could result in significant selling pressure from holders who bought in the $75,000-$95,000 range during the 2025 peak accumulation period. This is sometimes referred to as the “Wall of Worried Holders,” meaning participants sell when they can without being forced to do so.
To rise to $125,000, we need to move each cost-based cluster by absorbing that supply sequentially, without surrendering. Oversold signals seen in on-chain and technical data structurally support the bullish case, but the distribution of underwater holders complicates the new highs scenario in a clean short squeeze without a strong macro catalyst doing the heavy lifting.
catalyst calendar
Over the next two weeks, three events will resolve the current setting. The expiration of the Iran ceasefire on April 22 is the first. While a credible extension would remove the geopolitical tail risk that has limited the risk asset rally since February, a breakdown would likely push BTC towards the bottom of structural support at $68,000. The FOMC meets on April 28-29, and Chairman Powell’s dovish signals will reduce the opportunity cost of holding BTC. The CLARITY Act committee date confirmed in early May will add a third potential trigger specific to digital asset markets.