Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high of $73,881 by March 2024, delivering a 68% gain in Q1. Since then, it has struggled to break the $70,000 to $60,000 range. However, a new study suggests that BTC could deliver a 174% gain by the end of 2024.
Bitcoin is currently showing bullish intent above $60,000 after the weekly chart showed a bullish morning star pattern. Over the past day, BTC is up 3.5%.
Bitcoin Research Predicts High Goals Between 2025 and 2026
Bitcoin researcher Smithon Weed shared a study on X.com where he analyzed previous Bitcoin bull cycle peaks from 2011, 2013, and 2017. The idea was to evaluate each declining peak based on the residual BTC price at each cycle’s peak.
The decline period of the investment cycle refers to the period when the return of the strategy decreases over time after the opportunity is widely adopted or exercised. The decline period peaks when the rate of decline in asset value accelerates and the time remaining to realize profits from trades becomes shorter.
The researchers explained that they performed an “exponential decay fit” to predict the 2021 BTC high, taking into account prices from 2011, 2013, and 2017. The goal was to understand if the data set was coherent enough to predict the high, and if the results were positive. As stated,
“The results were quite surprising. We predicted $65,732.72, but the actual highest price was $64,682.47, a difference of about $1,050.”
When asked about potential price predictions for the 24/25 cycle, the results were quite shocking. Here are the quarterly targets for 2024 and 2025:
The researchers cautioned that the study should be taken with a “grain of salt” because the data set only covered four market cycles.
Bitcoin Power Law Joins, 6-figure Target
While the above study predicts positive returns in the coming months, we also see confluence with other mathematical models. For example, the Bitcoin power law, which is based on the same exponential decay concept, suggests that Bitcoin has not yet reached a new peak.
As you can see in the chart below, BTC is staying below the linear regression line (green) and has not crossed this range in the current up cycle. In all previous cases (2013, 2017, 2021), BTC’s value peaked when it exceeded the linear regression line value (green line).
The current Bitcoin price retracement line is around $88,000, and it will reach $100,000 in early 2025. Therefore, if history repeats itself, we can expect Bitcoin’s next price peak to be over $100,000.
BTC price faces strong resistance at $62,000
Bitcoin has recovered 14% since August 6, but faces strong resistance between $62,000 and $63,800. The 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (blue and purple lines, respectively) provide additional potential support levels in this range.
However, one of the bullish reversals that BTC is showing is the quick recovery above the 200-EMA, which indicates that bullish buying continues and there is no bearish foothold.
With the market cautious ahead of the US CPI data release, Bitcoin should ideally hold above $60,000, which would create bullish momentum to break above the $62,000 resistance level.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.