At the beginning of the week, the price of BTC (Bitcoin) surrendered to the seller’s pressure from $ 84,500 on March 17 to $ 81,300 at the time of writing. This falling campaign is likely to sell for two -day meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will be held from March 18 to 19.
Federal Open Market Committe (FOMC) meetings tend to serve as a market reset. Whenever FOMC meets to meet the US monetary policy, the encryption market stops to be shocked.
Historically, traders take risks and reduce leverage before the presentation, and the market can respond equally after the meeting and press conference of Chairman Jerome Powell.
The press release of the current FOMC meeting, scheduled for ET on Wednesday, March 19, can cause major movements in the Bitcoin market. Analyzing the market behavior leading to launch can provide clues to Bitcoin’s next movement.
For traders, FOMC means volatility
Traders are closely monitoring FOMCs on shifts on the Fed’s inflation and interest rates.
Bitcoin prices tend to respond rapidly after the FOMC announcement. Since early 2024, the price of the BTC has fallen most after the FOMC decides to maintain the fee, as the FOMC can be seen in the chart below.
A notable exception was the pre -holing rally in February 2024, which was consistent with the launch of the first branch BTC ETF. Bitcoin was rolled when the US interest rate was cut on September 18, 2024 and November 7, 2024.
But on December 18, 2024, the third cut did not get the same results. The gentle 25 Basis Points showed the local Bitcoin price of $ 108,000, with a 4.50% –4.75% range.
BTC/USD 1 day chart with FOMC date. Souc: Marie Pateriaieva, TradingView
Except for this time, DELEVERAGE before FOMC
The main indicators that provide insight into market sentiment are Bitcoin disclosure interest. The total number of total derivatives, most of the permanent future of $ 1, has not been solved.
Historically, the Bitcoin Open Interest falls before the FOMC meeting, and the merchant shows that the trader is reducing leverage and danger exposure according to the graph based on the CoingLass data.
Bitcoin gifts are public interest and FOMC date. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, CoingLass
But this month another pattern appeared. Despite Bitcoin’s $ 12 billion public and shaking out earlier this month, Bitcoin’s public interest was not noticeably reduced in the previous era of FOMC. But the BTC Price has decreased, which is rare and can represent a strong direction betting.
This can also be a sign that traders can feel less anxious about the Fed’s decision and expect neutral results. In support of this view, CME Group’s Fedwatch tool has a 99%chance that the Fed will maintain the ratio of 4.25%–4.50%.
If the rate is maintained without a change, the price of Bitcoin may continue to fall. This was hoped when the Italik whale opened a short position of 40 times more than $ 500 million in its peak. But this location is now closed.
relevant: Bitcoin is less than $ 85K -The main BTC price level to see before FOMC
How does the Spot Bitcoin ETF react?
Unlike Bitcoin Whales, investors at the Spot Bitcoin ETF have historically offered a BTC stake before the FOMC meeting.
According to CoingLass data, most FOMC events have matched the SPOT BTC ETF, which began in January 2024, matched the ETF leak or humble inflow. A notable exception was the highest in January 2025, and even Bitcoin ETF investors could not resist the impulse of the purchase.
Bitcoin Spot ETF net inflow and FOMC date. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, CoingLass
On March 17, SPOT BITCOIN ETFS saw a net inflow of $ 225 million, and a monthly leak was shifted. This shows the changes in investor feelings and expectations for the Fed’s policy decision.
If the inflow of SPOT ETFs rises before the FOMC, investors can expect more from the Fed, such as maintaining future interest rate cuts or liquidity -friendly policies.
Investors can also load Bitcoin with hedge for uncertainty. This suggests that some institutional investors believe that Bitcoin will do well regardless of the Fed’s decision.
Investors can also expect short pressure. If traders expect Bitcoin to fall and be short, if the inflow of ETFs suddenly increases, it can play an important role in the behavior of the trader and cause short pressure.
Following the FOMC, the price of BTC shows whether the recent activity is part of the long -term accumulation trend or part of the speculative position, along with the onChain data and the spot ETF flow.
But now, one of the many traders agrees that BTC can experience significant price movement after the FOMC announcement. Crypto Trader Master of Crypto puts it in a recent X post.
“FOMC is tomorrow and big movements are expected.”
Even if there is no interest rate cut, the likelihood of issuing a similar statement can increase the market, while the price can be lowered if they are absent.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading measures include risks, and the reader must do his own research when making a decision.