Independent market analyst Arsene is not fazed by the recent Bitcoin (BTC) price decline, predicting a massive rally to $330,000 in the current bullish cycle.
Smart money is accumulating bitcoin
Arsene argues that smart people, including institutional investors, market experts, and other financial professionals, have been accumulating Bitcoin during the recent correction, indicating a long-term bullish bias for the top cryptocurrency.
“Because this crash is nothing new,” the analyst said, referring to Bitcoin’s previous bull cycles, which occurred every four years and resulted in explosive price increases.
For example, Bitcoin’s first bull cycle lasted 800 days in 2012 and the price rose by a whopping 9,000%. The following cycles, in 2016 and 2020, lasted about 800 days and the BTC price soared by about 3,000% and 1,200%, respectively.
“Note that Bitcoin returns have been decreasing by about 60% in every consecutive cycle,” Arsen wrote, adding:
“This means that in this cycle, the price will rise by 450%, which will take Bitcoin to around $330,000 per coin.”
Nonetheless, the Bitcoin price prediction came amid a sharp correction, with BTC down about 23% from its all-time high of around $74,000 set just four months ago.
As of July 11, the flagship cryptocurrency was trading at $57,000. The recent losses were due to Mt. Gox continuing to refund customers and the German government aggressively selling off BTC. Nevertheless, according to data from CoinShares, institutional investors were buying the dip.
Additionally, according to a weekly report from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, large Bitcoin investors, or “whales,” have continued to increase their holdings despite the recent price decline.
Excerpt from the report:
“Whale holdings are growing at a 6.3% MoM rate, the fastest monthly pace since April 12. The increase in whale holdings is a sign that Bitcoin demand is growing.”
How low will Bitcoin have to go before it starts to rally again?
According to some analysts, Bitcoin’s current correction is far from bottoming out, but most remain confident in a long-term bullish scenario similar to Arsene’s $330,000 price target.
For example, 10x Research analyst Markus Thielen suggests that BTC price could drop to $50,000 in the coming weeks due to a double top formation. A double top is considered a bearish reversal pattern, as seen in the chart below.
MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe also predicted that Bitcoin prices will decline in the short term.
Market analysts expect Bitcoin to dip below its May 1 low of $56,000, absorbing demand-side liquidity and eventually dropping to around $52,800.
Another market analyst, Apsk32, expects the correction to continue until October, after which it will rise 300% by 2026.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.