After US President Donald Trump announced a 90 -day suspension of mutual tariffs except China, the US stocks and cryptographic markets changed dramatically on April 9. Bitcoin (BTC) prices soared 5% within an hour, recovering $ 83,000 last April 6.
The S & P 500 has gained 8%, but Bitcoin derivatives have not yet been strong as they maintain their cautious status of changes in US long -term government bonds.
Bitcoin 2 -month gift annual premium. Source: LAevitas.ch
BTC FutureS Premium rose briefly from neutral 5% threshold, but did not maintain exercise. Investors were skeptical about lower interest rates all year round. However, this indicator was far from 3% observed on March 31 and sent a signal to increase the trust of Bitcoin bulls after several failures to pursue less than $ 76,000.
Bitcoin trader is worried after 10 years of yield volatility
The merchant’s hesitation can be released on April 9 at the Federal Reserve Committe (FOMC) meeting held from March 18 to 19. The minute emphasized concerns about stainflation. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool Data, the federal reserve bank has reduced the probability of reducing the 4%decrease from 97.6%on April 8 to 69.7%on April 9.
Merchants are worried about the weakening of the US Treasury yield for 10 years. This reduction reflects the reduction in trust in the ability to manage the government’s debt. Peter Bocvar, editor of BOOCK Report, described Yahoo Finance as follows: He added that investors will “reduce the US treasure retention.”
US 10 -year financial yield. Source: TradingView / COINTELEGRAPH
If bond yields rise, the buyer indicates that it is demanding higher profits from the US government. As a result, debt withdrawal costs increase, creating a negative cycle that potentially weakens US dollars. This uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment is also reflected in the Bitcoin option market.
Bitcoin derivatives indicate the lack of belief in bulls
When a trader predicts market correction, the PUT (SELL) option is generally traded as a premium and pushes 25% DELTA SKEW (PUT-CALL) metrics to more than 6%. On the other hand, during the strong period, this indicator is usually less than -6%.
Bitcoin 1 month option 25% Delta Ski (foot call). Source: LAevitas.ch
On April 9, Bitcoin Options Delta Scau reached 12%after China announced higher tariffs with higher retaliation tariffs. But this trend was completely reversed with President Trump’s suspension of tariffs, and the indicators returned to 3%neutral. This change suggests that the option market is now indicating the end of the weak stage that started on March 29, with the equal probability of changes in the rise and falling prices.
relevant: The US dollar index (DXY) is close to 500%+ Bitcoin price rally.
In order to determine whether such a lack of strong feelings are limited to monthly futures and options markets, we can investigate the demand for leverage of permanent future (reverse swap). The contract is closely followed by the spot price, but depends on the 8 -hour financing fee. In the neutral market, the rate of financing is generally between 0.4% and 1.4% for 30 days.
Bitcoin permanent future 8 hours of financing ratio. Source: LAevitas.ch
On April 9 and 30, the financing rate of Bitcoin futures rose to 0.9%over six weeks. This increase reflects retail buyers entering the market, but it is likely to remain within the neutral range. This consistency on the BTC derivatives indicators suggests that the suspension of tariffs is not enough to restore trust as the tension of trade wars with China continues.
It is not clear whether Bitcoin traders will lead to optimistic positions, but the decrease in macroeconomic uncertainties, such as a decrease in the US 10 -year financial yield, will play an important role.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.