Bitcoin (BTC) is under pressure because macroeconomic uncertainty continues to be weighted. After a strong bounce on the floor of nearly $ 75,000 on April 7 and 9, analysts began to question whether the BTC could be prepared for the reversal of the downward trend that lasted from the beginning of the year.
Like the veteran merchant Peter Brandt, this trend line is only Hopium. As he mentioned in the X Post
“The trend line is not the most important among all chart configurations. The trend violation does not mean the transition of the BTC trend. Sorry.”
But others see more reasons for cautious optimism. The analyst emphasizes the possibility of RSI brake every week, “The identified weekly RSI brake out signal has been proved as one of the most reliable macro brake out indicators.”
Ultimately, prices are led by supply and demand, and both sides of the equation began to show subtle signs of recovery, but they have not yet reached the level necessary for proper escape. In addition, the bull must cut a dense wall near $ 86,000 to confirm the reversal.
Bitcoin demand -Is there an initial sign of recovery?
According to Cryptoquant, Bitcoin’s obvious demand (measured in sequential 30 days between exchange inflow and outflow) has a significant sign of initial recovery after continuous dip to the negative area.
But analysts warn about declaring trend reversal early. Looking back at the 2021 cycle peak, similar conditions occurred. Demands were low or negative for months, prices were temporarily stabilized or rebounded, and true structural recovery followed the expanded integration.
The current demand increase is not just a decisive floor code, but a pause of sales pressure. To check the changing momentum, it still requires time and confirmation.
From a merchant’s point of view, the obvious demand metric does not seem optimistic yet. According to Cryptoquant, the bitcoin daily trading volume is currently around 30,000 BTC (SPOT) and 400,000 BTC (derivatives). This is six times and three times less than the period of June -July 2021 before the last bull run of the 2019-2022 cycle, respectively. Despite the hopeful comparison of places where the current price drops sharply, volume dynamics suggests more conquered merchant appetite.
Institutional investors check the low demand trend. Since April 3, the SPOT BTC ETF has leaked more than $ 880 million, and the first inflow will occur until April 15. Nevertheless, the volume of trading is only 18%compared to the 30 -day average.
relevant: Encryption in the bear market, rebound in 3Q -Coinbase
Bitcoin Supply -Is it a liquidity revenue?
In terms of supply, liquidity weakens. According to a recent report from GlassNode, realized CAP growth has slowed to 0.83%per month (previous 0.83%). This points out that there is a lack of meaningful new capital to enter the bitcoin network, and GlassNode remains much lower than the typical bull market threshold.
In addition, the BTC balance for transactions (often used to measure the liquidity that is often sold) has fallen to 2.6 million BTC, the lowest level since November 2018.
But at a wider macroeconomic level, some analysts see the reason for careful hope. Independent market analyst Michael Van de Poppe, along with certain delays (12 weeks), pointed out the fast M2 supply that has often affected Bitcoin prices in the past.
“If the correlation remains, he assumes that he will see the Bitcoin rally in ATH this quarter. This also means the rise of CNH/USD, the decrease in yield, the drop in gold, the decrease in DXY and the rise of Altcoins.”
Even if you have optimistic propulsion and demand, Bitcoin should organize the critical resistance area between $ 86,300 and $ 86,500, as shown in the liquidity archipelago of the CoingLass.
Alphractal adds another insight into the alpha price chart. The alpha price chart integrates the caps, average caps and on -chain emotions realized through the alpha price chart and reaches the same conclusion. According to the chart, the BTC must decisively destroy more than $ 86,300 to restore short -term strong feelings. If the price is weakened, the support level is $ 73,900 and $ 64,700.
Overall, calling a trend reversal in this stage can be a period of time. Liquidity is thin, macro economic headwinds, and investors are carefully maintained. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s elasticity of $ 80,000 signals the strong support of long -term holders. The decisive ride of more than $ 86,300 can change market feelings, and in the best scenarios, new rally can be ignited. But in order to make this movement significant, it must be supported not only in leverage -centered activities but also on the spot market.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading measures include risks, and the reader must do his own research when making a decision.