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Next year, the price could exceed $40,000. Binance’s DOJ settlement and former CEO Changpeng Zhao’s guilty plea to financial violations marked a turning point in the cryptocurrency landscape, according to Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen.
Binance’s agreement to pay a $4.3 billion fine is one of the largest corporate settlements in U.S. history. Zhao will pay a $50 million fine and a $175 million personal recognizance bond after stepping down as CEO. He also faces the possibility of being sentenced to 18 months in prison ahead of a hearing on February 23.
The analyst argued that Binance is likely to remain a top-three exchange for the next two to three years, with consequences less severe than being fined $10 billion without alleging Binance misappropriated user funds or market manipulation .
Even though the Binance news was initially perceived as a risk-off event, Bitcoin only experienced a temporary correction and bounced back from the $36,000 level in a “strong countertrend reaction,” Thielen said. “Bitcoin’s surge above $40,000 is inevitable”
“We expect Bitcoin to surpass $38,000 with an 80% chance by the end of this month, with a 90% chance of a bounce above $40,000 in December,” Thielen added.
Bitcoin Seasonality
Matrixport analysts noted that the price of Bitcoin surged 28% in October 2023, a trend that could continue amid the expected approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S., which could bolster confidence in Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class. He said he would emphasize it even more.
Seasonality is another factor, and with an average return of 12% in December, this metric alone could push Bitcoin to $42,000, he added.
Tether’s USDT market cap increased by $5 billion.
Thielen said Tether’s USDT market cap has increased by $5 billion since September, indicating a growing trend of institutional investors switching from fiat to stablecoins, and potentially into other cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. I said there is.
“An additional $600 million USDT was seen minted last night, following the Binance/CZ deal with US enforcement authorities, which appears to increase the chances of a US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF being approved by January. “It was potentially signaling an influx into ,” Thielen said. Added.
USDT daily mining. Image: Matrixport.
Macro environment supporting cryptocurrency
Thielen said the macro environment also continues to support cryptocurrencies. Matrixport expects the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to peak at 4.95, before inflation halves again to 1.6% by 2024 or 2025 and bond yields to fall to 2.60%. In this cycle it is %.
The correction in bond yields is expected to lead to a surge in stock markets, which is often correlated with cryptocurrencies, the analyst added.
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