Main takeout:
BTC Futures and Options shows stable investment feelings despite recent modifications.
The macroeconomic uncertainty and the US trade war reduce the probability of reorganizing the recent high.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 5.5% between May 27 and May 30, and re -tested $ 104,000 for the first time in 11 days. Despite the correction, professional bitcoin traders are optimistic, as reflected in the BTC derivatives data and continuous demand for China’s Stay Blemoin.
BTC is closely related to US government bonds, and is likely to follow the weakness of macroeconomic factors, following the highest $ 111,970 on May 22. The trade war led by US President Donald Trump has made investors more dangerous.
On May 22, the return on US Treasury bonds peaked at 4.60%, but it decreased to 4.42%as investors sought to safety of government -supported assets. If the yield falls, the trader indicates that the return is lowered and the purchase activity increases. This change matched Bitcoin’s $ 7,900 reduction from May 22 to May 30.
The Bitcoin Futures Premium is currently 7%, and it hasn’t changed since May 27, with BTC nearly $ 110,000. This level is unlikely to be the cause of correction, as the level falls comfortably within a 10% range from 5% neutral to 10%. More importantly, there is no evidence that excessive leverage has contributed to a record high on May 22.
On May 30, the total open interest in BTC futures, which corresponds to 700,000 BTC, was only 2%of the level observed on May 27, indicating that the trader’s appetite for leverage positions did not fall significantly. In fact, the liquidation of the strong BTC futures position is $ 333 million in four days, less than 0.5% of the total interest interest.
The Bitcoin option market also showed a limited reaction to a $ 104,000 re -test. The 25% delta is remained within a neutral range of -6% to +6%, which indicates that the trader has equal probability for upward and downward exercises. In general, as whales and market manufacturers expect further falls, the Metric rises more than 6% as the PUT (SELL) options begin to be traded as a premium.
relevant: Bitcoin is less than $ 105K, and a hyperclicade whale loss with nearly $ 1 billion after deep dip
TETHER (USDT) is traded at a slight 0.4% discount in China compared to the official USD/CNY fee, suggesting that the decrease in bitcoin has not occurred in the encryption market. This points out the rotation to the stable coin, reducing macroeconomic uncertainty.
The strong short -term correlation between the US Treasury and Bitcoin combined with a stable BTC derivatives metric showed that professional traders were not surprised by the full back of $ 104,000. From a technical point of view, recent modifications will not announce the interest of the traders despite the net leak of $ 347 million in the Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) on May 29.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.