Bitcoin (BTC) surged 9.7% from October 27 to October 29, reaching a high of $73,575 before paring gains to retest the $71,500 level on October 30. Despite Bitcoin’s price correction, derivatives market activity, multiple indicators, including on-chain indicators, and stablecoin demand—suggest a solid foundation for a sustained rise above $73,000 in the near term.
However, Bitcoin futures premiums, a key measure of leverage demand, indicate strong confidence among bullish investors.
Bitcoin 2-month futures premium. Source: laevitas.ch
In neutral market conditions, monthly futures contracts typically carry a premium of 5-10% per annum to account for long settlement periods. The current 13% premium is the highest in over four months and shows no apparent weakness despite Bitcoin being rejected at $73,575.
The price of Bitcoin followed closely behind gold, which soared to an all-time high of $2,790 on October 30, but has since lost some momentum.
Gold/USD (left) and BTC/USD (right). Source: TradingView
The decline in gold prices can be partly attributed to recent macroeconomic data released on October 30, such as the U.S. Private Payroll Report, which showed an increase of 233,000 jobs in October. Additionally, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported third-quarter GDP growth of 2.8%, slightly lower than the 3% growth rate in the previous quarter.
This economic resilience reduces the likelihood of further aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weakening immediate demand for alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
Moreover, a strong economy does not necessarily increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Concerns about public deficits have increased the cost of refinancing government debt, with the yield on five-year U.S. Treasury bonds rising to 4.1% from 3.5% last month.
Bitcoin on-chain and derivatives indicators indicate optimism.
Given ongoing skepticism about the outcome of US macroeconomic policies, Bitcoin’s resilience amid short-term price declines is not surprising. Nonetheless, with respect to exchange net flows, there were significant deposits when the Bitcoin price surpassed $70,000 on October 29, indicating the willingness of some traders to profit from this level.
6-hour average net transfer volume, exchange BTC. Source: Glassnode
However, this movement reversed by October 30, with net outflows becoming dominant, according to Glassnode data. Some traders initially sold Bitcoin near all-time highs, but this activity was short-lived and well within normal trading expectations.
To confirm sentiment, stablecoin demand in the Chinese market provides additional insight. Strong demand for cryptocurrencies tends to push stablecoin prices up to a 2% premium to the U.S. dollar, and the discount often signals fear as traders exit the cryptocurrency market.
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USDT Tether (USDT/CNY) vs. US Dollar/CNY. Source: OKX
Data shows that China’s stablecoin premium fell slightly from 0.7% to 0.3%, remaining in the neutral range. Despite Bitcoin’s $2,140 correction on October 30, this data indicates market resilience. Additionally, when combined with on-chain indicators and derivatives indicators, there is ample evidence to suggest that traders are confident in Bitcoin’s potential to maintain bullish momentum in the near term.
This article is written for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.