The four -year cycle of Bitcoin (BTC), centered on half an event, is widely known as a key element of BTC’s price growth compared to the previous year. Within this larger framework, traders have been looking forward to distinct stages such as accumulation, parabolic meetings and final collisions.
For four years, there is a short period of time, and is often led by the change of market sentiment and the behavior of long -term and short -term holders. This cycle formed by the psychological pattern of the market participant can provide insight into Bitcoin’s next movement.
Bitcoin whales eat as the market retreats
Long-term bitcoin holders (those who have for 3-5 years) are often considered the most seasoned participants. In general, the bear market, which is rich in rich and experienced experience, can be matched with the weather and tends to be sold near the local tower.
According to the latest data from GlassNode, the long -term holder has been distributed in two distinct waves of more than 2 million BTCs during the current cycle. Following the two waves, strong reactions followed, which absorbs sales pressure and contributed to a more stable price structure. Currently, long -term bitcoin holders are in a new accumulation period. Since mid -February, the cohort’s wealth has increased sharply by almost 363,000 BTC.
A total BTC supply held by long -term holders. Source: Glass Node
Another cohort of Bitcoin Holder seems to be more skilled than the average market participants. Whales have more than 1,000 BTCs. Many of them are long -term holders. At the top of this group is a mega-Wadal with more than 10,000 BTC. According to Bitinfocharts, there are currently 93 addresses, and recent activities refer to continuous accumulation.
According to GlassNode data, in early April, a large whale reaches the perfect accumulation score (~ 1.0), indicating intense purchase for 15 days. The score has been relaxed to 0.65 since then, but it still reflects a consistent accumulation. These large holders appear to be purchased at a small cohort. In particular, wallets under BTC and less than 100 BTC wallets have fallen to 0.1–0.2.
This radiance signal increases the distribution of large -scale holders in the sleeve and displays the potential of future price support (whales tend to be maintained for a long time). Often, it also takes priority over optimism.
MEGA-WHALES had a perfect accumulation score when Bitcoin made nearly $ 60,000 in August 2024. Two months later, the BTC raced at $ 108,000.
Cohort’s BTC trend accumulation score. Source: Glass Node
Short -term holders are greatly affected by market sentiment
In general, short-term holders, defined as having a BTC for 3-6 months, act differently. They are more likely to sell during modification or uncertainty.
This operation also follows the pattern. According to GlassNode data, expenditures tend to rise every 8-12 months.
At present, short -term holders’ spending activities are historically low despite the intense macro environment. This suggests that many new Bitcoin buyers have chosen to hold rather than panic sales. However, if the price of bitcoin is lower, short -term holders can be sold first, so they can potentially accelerate the decrease.
BTC short -term holders’ spending activities. Source: Glass Node
The market is led by people. Emotions such as fear, greed, rejection, and happiness do not affect individual decisions, forming the entire market movement. That’s why we often see familiar patterns. When greed is caught, the foam swells and collapses with the weight of panic sales.
CoinmarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index shows this rhythm. This metrics are generally circulated every 3-5 months based on multiple market indicators, swinging with neutral to greed or fear.
Since February, market sentiment has remained in the fear and extremely feared territory, and has been deteriorated by US President Donald Trump’s trade war and the collapse of the world’s stock market prices. But human psychology is periodic, and the market can see potential returns with “neutral” feelings within the next 1-3 months.
Fear and greed index chart. Source: Coinmarketcap
Perhaps the most attractive aspect of the market cycle is probably a way to be self -fulfilled. If sufficient people believe in the pattern, they will benefit from the expected peak and begin to buy dip from the expected floor. This collective action strengthens the cycle and adds sustainability.
Bitcoin is a representative example. The cycle may not be executed at the exact schedule, but there is a consistent rhyme that forms expectations and consequently affects reality.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading measures include risks, and the reader must do his own research when making a decision.