Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record high of $109,321 on January 20, driven by expectations of a cryptocurrency-friendly government from US President Donald Trump. The optimism comes from campaign promises for regulatory clarity and the appointment of cryptocurrency advocates to key positions.
Bitcoin derivatives demonstrate moderate risk appetite in bull markets.
Despite the price surge, sentiment among Bitcoin whales and market makers remained stable. Derivatives data showed there was little confidence in further gains beyond $110,000, at least in the short term.
The Bitcoin futures premium over the spot market on January 20 rose to 14% from 12% on January 17. Although this figure exceeds the neutral threshold of 10%, it reflects moderate skepticism among professional traders. Historically, bull rallies have pushed BTC futures premiums above 30%.
To assess whether this effect is limited to the futures market, analysts also examine BTC options skew metrics. This indicator compares the premiums of similar call (buy) and put (sell) options. A ratio between -6% and +6% is considered neutral, while a negative skew indicates bullish sentiment.
The current 25% delta skew for Deribit’s Bitcoin options is -6%, indicating a cautious level of optimism. This means that the BTC derivatives market is showing no signs of overconfidence, but it does not mean that there is a bearish sentiment.
Is Trump’s Inauguration a “News Selling” Event for Bitcoin?
After hitting record highs, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below $105,000, leaving traders speculating whether Trump’s inauguration represents a “sell the news” scenario. Many of the expected measures to support the cryptocurrency market have already been announced, reducing the element of surprise. Moreover, the viability of the “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” plan depends on approval by Congress and the Senate, making its implementation uncertain.
Part of the lack of enthusiasm among Bitcoin investors and the resulting price correction can be attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the surging U.S. fiscal debt situation, which has led investors to act more cautiously.
According to the Treasury Department, the U.S. federal budget deficit surged nearly 40% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period the previous year. Additionally, market forecasts show that government debt financing costs are expected to exceed $1.2 trillion in 2025, surpassing last year’s record.
relevant: Bitcoin hits record high, surpassing $109,000 ahead of Trump’s inauguration
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned in a letter to congressional leaders on January 17 that the federal government would reach its borrowing limit on January 21. She announced plans to take “extraordinary measures” to temporarily free up borrowing capacity under $36.1 trillion in debt. Prevents potential default.
If lawmakers fail to reach a fiscal agreement in the coming days, it could trigger a partial government shutdown, disrupting essential services, delaying federal employee payments and destabilizing financial markets. This uncertainty has increased the incentive for traders to take profits, especially after Bitcoin’s price above $109,000 reflected a 17% gain since the beginning of the year.
Professional traders remain cautious about a further rise in the price of Bitcoin, but there are no signs of a surge in bearish bets. The data shows that most traders were positioned to take either passive or more sideways price action. However, continued Bitcoin price surges could catch whales and market makers off guard, especially in the more cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory environment in the United States.
This article is written for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.