Bitcoin price is recovering from its June downtrend, but on-chain data suggests it could face resistance at the $65,000 level.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $62,288, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours and 8.6% in the last 30 days. This follows a prolonged downtrend in June that reversed all gains made in May.
According to Coinglass data, when Bitcoin is negative in June, it tends to bounce back strongly in July. In fact, BTC had an average return of 7.98% in July, with a median return of 9.60%.
However, technical and on-chain data show that any attempt at recovery this month could be limited by sell-side pressure at the $65,000 level. A look at the daily chart shows that Bitcoin price is facing strong resistance on its recovery path.
This is the area between $61,817 and $56,914, which are included in the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA, respectively.
“In the short term, we expect some resistance around the $65,000 level as short-term market speculators may look to liquidate positions at ‘break-even’ levels,” Blockware Intelligence analysts wrote in their latest newsletter.
“Last summer, when BTC lost the STH (short-term holders) RP support level, the price moved sideways for another two months before finally breaking through again.”
The June drop sent Bitcoin spot prices well below the widely tracked STH cost benchmark, raising concerns of a deeper correction.
According to data from LookIntoBitcoin, the cost basis for short-term holders stood at $64,513 as of June 28, while the spot price hovered around $60,317.
The realized price or total cost basis represents the average price at which a coin was last used on chain.
That means short-term holders are facing losses and may try to exit the market at a loss or break-even, which could potentially lead to more selling pressure near $65,000.
In his analysis for X, independent analyst Ali Martinez supported this outlook, saying that according to the market value-to-realized value metric, the BTC price could face resistance above $65,000.
According to Martinez, a break of this level could send Bitcoin higher towards $78,700.
What’s interesting is that in the Bitcoin 1-month liquidation heat map published by Coinglass, the sell-off volume reached $64,940, with a volume of $1.23 billion.
Related: Bitcoin Breaks $63,000 with Liquidity, Expectations for 40% BTC Price Rise Rising
Meanwhile, Thomas Farrer, founder of cryptocurrency firm Apollo, is more optimistic about Bitcoin’s ability to surpass $65,000.
“#Bitcoin short position of $940M will be liquidated at $65K,” he declared in a July 2 post on X.
“The first rule of Bitcoin is don’t short it,” he added in a follow-up post. “The flow will come, and shorting will be punished.”
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.