Bitcoin (BTC) analysts are expecting a breakout in the coming weeks, but market sentiment and historical data threaten a bigger downside in September.
Bitcoin Nears Breakthrough: Analyst
According to cryptocurrency analyst Mikybull Crypto, Bitcoin price may be signaling a rally based on a bullish divergence forming on the daily chart.
The analyst wrote in a September 13 post to X:
“Bitcoin is out of range and nearing its breaking point.”
Bitcoin/USD, 1-day chart, bullish divergence. Source: Mikybull Crypto
A bullish divergence is a technical formation that traders use to identify market momentum strengthening following a lower low. This indicator is associated with price reversals in a downtrend.
According to popular analyst Titan of Crypto, Bitcoin has also retested a key support level, which could see the price break above $92,000. He wrote in a September 13 post on X:
“In previous cycles, when price retested the 50-week SMA, it bounced at least 40%. On average, the bounce rate was 71%. If BTC were to rally 71% from here, it could reach $92,000.”
BTC.USD, 1-week chart. Source: Titan of Crypto
relevant: Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally After Closing Short Positions
‘Anxiety Phase’ Before BTC Price Surge?
According to Axel Adler, a contributing analyst at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has entered a “nervous phase” based on the net unrealized profit-loss ratio. In other words, there are a lot of short-term investors in the water, which could indicate a potential bottom, as highlighted in the chart below.
The analyst wrote in a September 13 post to X:
“After the $72,000 belief phase, the net unrealized P&L (NUPL) shows a green bar, which corresponds to the anxiety phase. Investor anxiety is a permanent process, unless it is LTH, and the best solution to it is HODL.”
BTC: Adjusted Net Unrealized P&L NUPL. Source: Axel Adler
Moreover, according to popular analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin’s current downtrend is consistent with the previous September historical cycle, as he wrote in a September 12 post:
“Bitcoin is currently down -1.59% this month.”
Bitcoin Monthly Average Return, Percentage. Source: Rekt Capital
According to CoinGlass data, September was historically a weak month for Bitcoin prices, with an average return of -4.69%, making it the most negative month by average return.
relevant: Bitcoin Price Expects Last Drop Before October Breakout: Analysts
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.