Despite being a traditionally bearish period, this month is set to be the best September ever for Bitcoin (BTC), and signs of a retail comeback are starting to appear.
The highest previously observed increase in September was a 6% increase in 2016.
Bitcoin monthly return (%) chart by year. Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin also posted monthly gains in the fourth quarter, following a strong final month of the third quarter. 2015, 2016, and 2023 are all prime examples of strong quarters expected in 2024.
Several Bitcoin Indicators Reverse Bullishly
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Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium Index Chart. Source: CryptoQuant
Coinbase premiums are often used as an indicator of U.S. retail investor demand. The higher the value, the greater the buying pressure. Moreover, Coinbase premium yields are currently consistent with increasing spot Bitcoin ETF daily inflows.
As Cointelegraph reported, total inflows into 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on September 26 were $365.7 million, pushing BTC price to a new monthly high.
This suggests that institutional investors are slowly turning their attention back to Bitcoin following the announcement of favorable interest rate cuts earlier this month.
Meanwhile, cumulative spot volume delta across all exchanges also hit monthly highs, with the net long side of spot volume dominating the charts.
Bitcoin spot cumulative trading volume delta. Source: Glassnode
This could be another sign that retail investors are making a comeback, but more evidence is needed to confirm the trend.
Bitcoin formed an “HTF” bullish pattern for the first time in five months.
On September 23, Cointelegraph highlighted that Bitcoin was attempting to clear $65,000 to create a new pattern higher. Three days later, BTC broke the five-month downtrend by closing the daily candle above the previous resistance, i.e. HTF, on higher time frames.
relevant: Cryptocurrency rally ‘very likely’ in Q4 as BTC hits $65,000
As can be seen in the chart, the previous high low (HL) and low low (LL) patterns were broken after Bitcoin closed the daily candle above the HTF resistance of $65,000. An HTF breakout is a strong indication of a potential new long-term trend forming on the chart.
Bitcoin 1 day chart. Source: TradingView
It is important to note that the current HH and HL patterns may still be bearish, but these are considered low bullish trends.
Therefore, the key resistance levels to watch are currently $68,100 and $71,500, which BTC/USD failed to overcome over the summer.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.