January 9th Bitfinex Alpha | Bitcoin fluctuates ahead of ETF decision
On Bitfinex Alpha
As we enter the new year of 2024, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate strongly and shows no signs of slowing down! Despite rising 57% in the final quarter of 2023 and 155% for the full year, in just three days of 2024, BTC fell 11% on January 3, Bitcoin’s block creation day. Reports that the long-awaited Bitcoin spot ETF may not be approved have led to billions of dollars in unpaid interest being written off and both long and short positions liquidated. While these developments are always unfortunate, we believe they are relatively sound and entirely predictable.
On-chain indicators also tell an interesting story: On December 27, an unremarkable day for Bitcoin price, the number of days of coins destroyed increased significantly, demonstrating Bitcoin’s strategic positioning. Long-term BTC holders are We can expect important regulatory decisions. -The awaited Bitcoin spot ETF.
As noted in Bitfinex Alpha’s 2024 outlook report, we believe the market remains vulnerable to a downside (particularly in the $44-45,000 range) and is highly sensitive to regulatory developments.
The new year began with a complex but positive picture for the U.S. economy. New data from the construction industry shows spending is rising year on year, suggesting that demand and investment are expanding despite production falling into contraction territory not only in the US but also in the eurozone and China.
Within minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting last December, policymakers expressed the view that interest rates appeared to have peaked, with most officials predicting a move to lower rates by the end of 2024.
However, one factor that could undermine this view is that the labor market in December significantly exceeded expectations for the number of new jobs added. Evidence of further growth will reignite concerns about inflation and officials will be wary of cutting interest rates too quickly.
On the news front, the new year has also started with several positive developments, with some of the largest asset managers vying for positions to launch regulated Bitcoin spot ETF products, with some of the largest asset managers beginning preparations for ETFs.
Additionally, Visa, one of the world’s largest credit card companies, also announced a Web3-based reward system, allowing customers to accumulate digital assets such as tickets. You can tokenize and earn reward points that can be used on both virtual and real experiences. .
Troubled cryptocurrency lending platform Celsius said it was liquidating its ETH holdings to repay creditors. Meanwhile, the Bank of Spain announced a pilot program for a wholesale central bank digital currency, attracting participation from the financial and technology sectors, with the aim of exploring ways to use these currencies for transfers and payments of financial assets.
An exciting start to the new year. Happy trading everyone!