February 3 Bitfinex Alpha | BTC is rotten by tariff hiking but remains elastic.
Bitfinex alpha
Bitcoin’s price behavior is increasingly responding to President Donald Trump’s US policy announcement, with more and more widespread development. Over the week, Bitcoin has fallen to less than $ 100,000 and has responded to reduction in volatility and potential market corrections. Bitcoin started 2025 in January with a 10 % profit, but the price has been slowed by the price within 15 % in the last 65 days.
In fact, BTC is leading the US stock market in terms of response to macro development. The double top structure, which can be found on both Bitcoin and S & P 500 charts, first occurred in BTC. Trump’s tariff announcement, the latest market catalyst, decreased 0.5 % from S & P 500 last Friday, and fell more clearly in Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s 30 -day rolling correlation with S & P 500 rose to 0.8, the highest level in five months. This has strengthened the view that Bitcoin is doing similar transactions to macro driving risk assets.
Despite short -term volatility, Bitcoin is structurally powerful in higher time frames. The BTC repaid $ 67,000 to more than $ 100,000 after the US election, while stocks showed uneven recovery.
BTC/USD 4H chart. (Source: Bitfinex)
In this background, the US economy continues to show elasticity through solid consumer expenditures and economic expansion, but is facing the headwind of policy uncertainty, trade and stubborn inflation.
The Federal Reserve Bank continued to hold a 4.25-4.50 %interest rate last week, and policymakers signed a signal that they are not ready to relieve financial conditions until inflation shows a clear downward trend. Consumer spending soared in December, and the actual expenditure increased by 0.4 % to strengthen economic growth, but made the Fed’s path complicated.
PCE (personal consumption expenditure) price index changes for 1 month a month
Inflation is higher than the 2 % goal of the central bank, and the core PCE inflation is 2.8 % compared to the previous year. Despite the slower wage growth rate, labor costs can increase due to the tight labor market and potential immigration restrictions, which can add inflation risk. Meanwhile, economic expansion has closed at 2.3 %in one year, and business investment and trade uncertainty continues to be at risk due to household consumption and government spending.
As a result, the market has adjusted the expectation of the rate cut, and the price is priced at a low price. Since political and economic variables flow, in the next few months, the Fed is important to determine whether the Fed will move to policy relief or maintain a limited position to fight inflation pressure.
As the US economy surrends the period of elasticity mixed with policy uncertainty, the cryptocurrency sector is experiencing its own inflection. While maintaining the Federal Reserve Bank under the inflation pressure, market participants closely see how digital assets will respond to the increase in macroeconomic trends, monetary policy shifts and corporate adoption.
Microstrategy has doubled its bitcoin to $ 1.1 billion, bringing a total of 158,400 BTC to an additional 10,107 BTC. The company also submitted a shelf registration to the SEC to efficiently raise capital for future purchase of Bitcoin. On the other hand, METAPLANET, a Tokyo listed company, has made a history with a capital increase of $ 775 million in order to expand the amount of Bitcoin reserves, and has strengthened its “Bitcoin Priority, Bitcoin” strategy with depreciation depreciation. This increases the institutional belief that Bitcoin serves as a hedge for financial destruction and economic instability. At the same time, tethers integrates Bitcoin’s lightning network, expanding the usefulness of USDT Stablecoin of $ 140 billion. This move greatly improves Bitcoin’s financial infrastructure, enabling faster and more efficient global transactions. Tether is a more executable payment network that uses taproot assets to bridge the gap between Stablecoins and Bitcoin.