January 22nd Bitfinex Alpha | Even as the BTC market deepens, expands, and diversifies, more pullbacks are possible
On Bitfinex Alpha
Bitcoin’s plunge late last week led to a significant decline in unrealized profits, especially among short-term holders. We believe this could potentially contribute to increased selling pressure, particularly among recent buyers.
This group’s tendency to react more sensitively to short-term market movements could intensify selling, and we expect further market corrections to be possible, with significant support levels for Bitcoin only remaining at $38,000 and $36,000. These levels are closely aligned with the short-term holder realized prices discussed last week. Bitfinex AlphaIt plays a pivotal role in measuring Bitcoin’s short-term market stability and investor sentiment.
On a macro level, December saw a surprising surge in retail sales, driven by active car purchases and a significant increase in online shopping. This strong retail activity and higher-than-expected consumer sentiment hints at the risk of rising inflation, which will cause markets to reconsider how certain a rate cut is. We still think there is potential for policy easing, but it will be important to watch the data.
At the same time, the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.3% of the economy, grew only marginally in output as it continued to grapple with constraints imposed by the tight monetary policy in place since March 2022. This trend was further emphasized in January, with factory activity showing a further slowdown.
Manufacturing companies remain cautiously hopeful that conditions will improve, and the economic downturn, with jobless claims falling in January to a 16-month low, highlights the continued strength of the labor market. But more data is important to make more robust predictions about the economic outlook.
In the latest news in the cryptocurrency space, the South Korean government has signaled potential greater openness to approving a domestic spot Bitcoin ETF following the successful launch of the same product in the United States earlier this month. In fact, just two weeks after the launch of 10 spot BTC ETFs in the US, their popularity has led to them now surpassing the Silver ETF in terms of assets under management. This milestone not only highlights Bitcoin’s growing market acceptance, but also reflects a paradigm shift in investment preferences.
Last week, the Bitcoin ETF market is likely to deepen and diversify further, with ProShares, the original issuer of a Bitcoin ETF linked to the BTC futures market, filing for five new ETFs linked to leveraged and inverse BTC options. It turns out that there is. Increasing the range of ways one can gain exposure to Bitcoin is very healthy for the underlying market.
We are now in a more sophisticated, more liquid and arguably more mature market than we were just a few months ago. This is further evidence that the market is diversifying risk and increasing scale, even as the new Grayscale ETF has seen outflows as investors look to exit previously closed BTC trusts that Grayscale has converted into cheaper investment options. In other words, Grayscale maintains a strong presence in the market, holding over 500,000 Bitcoins. These significant holdings highlight the company’s potential to influence the wider market, a factor that will become increasingly important if the current pace of outflows continues.
Happy trading!