October 2nd Bitfinex Alpha | Is October ‘Uptober’?
On Bitfinex Alpha
Since bottoming at $52,756 on September 6, Bitcoin has surged 26.2%, surpassing $65,000 and “shaking” its previous high on August 25. This upward move marks the first time Bitcoin has hit a local high since March 2024. This is consistent with signs from October, which marked Bitcoin’s most successful month in history with an average increase of 27.7%. This good news, combined with the upcoming fourth quarter, a quarter that typically brings “huge” profits each year, has bolstered investors’ optimism about the next price increase.
However, despite Bitcoin pulling back from key on-chain levels, such as the short-term holding realized price (currently $62,750), there are still “red flags.” The buying trend in the spot market, which hit bottom on September 6th, has now calmed down, showing the market taking a break for a rebound.
BTC’s open interest (OI) exploded to over $35 billion, a level that often accompanies previous price highs. This leads many to worry that the market is too hot. However, a small decline of 5-10% can cool the OI without affecting the overall upward trend. Bitcoin is still in the $50,000-$68,000 range, as it was in 2020. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach a new peak in early 2025 with a decline in the amount of Bitcoin stored on exchanges. Pressure sells less.
In August and early September, U.S. economic conditions were “sometimes sunny, sometimes rainy.” Inflation has cooled to its smallest annual increase in three and a half years, showing that the economy is gradually stabilizing. Economic growth is progressing rapidly, with GDP increasing by an average of 3% per year in the second quarter of 2024. But consumer confidence, recorded before the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts this month, fell sharply in September, recording its biggest decline in three years, largely due to concerns about the labor market.
However, the number of households planning to purchase a home over the next six months increased unexpectedly, suggesting that optimism about economic recovery is likely to increase.
The world of cryptocurrency is still very active. U.S. businesses can now buy, sell, hold and transfer cryptocurrencies, but platforms like PayPal remain concerned about the non-custodial nature of these models, saying they are too centralized and go against the decentralized spirit of cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris pledged to strengthen America’s leadership in emerging technologies, including blockchain and cryptocurrency, as part of her ‘opportunity economy’ vision that aims to strengthen the country’s global competitiveness in the digital age. .
On the enterprise side, Ethena will be working with Securitize to launch UStb, a new stablecoin backed by BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund. This stablecoin offers a more stable alternative to the existing stablecoin USDe and can be used as margin collateral on exchanges, catering to a risk-averse investor base. In general, the market is “crowded” with changes and promises an exciting future for cryptocurrencies.
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