Bitwise predicts a 50% chance of spot ETH ETF approval and $88,000 in BTC by the end of the year.

Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen believes there is a 50% chance that a spot Ethereum ETF will receive approval in the coming months.

Rasmussen shared his insights on probability in a February 26 interview with Yahoo Finance. He said:

“It is unclear whether the market has necessarily reached the point the SEC would like to see in May of this year to approve a spot (Ethereum) ETF. I think there’s about a 50/50% chance of getting approved. Or you could get rejected and move on to another application later.”

Other sources, including Bitwise global head of research Matt Hougan, previously predicted that a spot ETH ETF would have a closer to 50% chance of receiving approval in May. Meanwhile, the Polymarket website’s approval probability is slightly lower at 41%.

The SEC must decide on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application by a May 23 deadline, and is expected to decide on other applications at the same time, as it did with the spot Bitcoin ETF.

Rasmussen also discussed that the U.S. SEC did not approve a Bitcoin ETF until Grayscale commenced litigation over the dismissal of the application. He added that it was unclear whether a similar lawsuit would be needed for the ETH ETF.

Moreover, it is unclear whether the applicant can bring proceedings at this stage.

Bitwise believes that ETFs will drive prices higher.

Bitwise does not currently have a pending spot Ethereum ETF application, but was one of several applicants to gain approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in January.

Rasmussen noted that Bitwise is “very pleased” with the success of its Bitcoin ETF. He said the company has seen $1 billion in asset flows into its Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), with more than $15 billion in asset flows across the ETFs.

Rasmussen also predicted that spot Bitcoin ETFs and other funds would push the price of the cryptocurrency higher as previously “sidelined” institutional investors buy in. He said:

“I don’t think it’s surprising that the price of Bitcoin rises when this kind of demand shock hits the market. If another ETF comes out, I think the same will apply to Ethereum and other assets. market.”

Rasmussen also discussed other events impacting the cryptocurrency market, including the upcoming Bitcoin halving, Ethereum’s upcoming Dencun upgrade, NFT trading volume, and Solana’s price rise.

He suggested that cryptocurrencies are “rising from the ashes” of a weak 2022 market and entering a multi-year bull cycle. Rasmussen concluded by restating Bitwise’s initial price prediction and said the flagship cryptocurrency is on track to hit a new all-time high of at least $88,000 by the end of 2024.