Bitcoin (BTC) enters June in fighting form as early resistance comes back into play.
With the TradFi market reemerging, BTC price momentum is targeting $69,000. Will there finally be a breakthrough this week?
This is a key question for Bitcoin market participants and one that has seen a variety of opinions raised in recent weeks.
BTC/USD, which hasn’t been out of range for nearly three months, argues that it should continue its uptrend for a long time, but holders may have to wait longer yet.
The next few days could provide the fuel the bulls need to get to work. The US unemployment rate, a catalyst for recent volatility in risk assets, is due to be released this weekend.
Meanwhile, on-chain indicators are lining up to call for a bullish comeback for Bitcoin, and behind it, network fundamentals are slowly recovering towards all-time highs.
As prices and sentiment slowly recover, Cointelegraph takes a look at the key issues facing Bitcoin traders as June begins.
$69,000 forms the “critical price” for the week.
After being volatile over the weekend, BTC/USD eventually came full circle by the week’s close, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
However, as soon as the June 3 candle opened, Bitcoin strength set the tone higher for the Asian trading session.
Now above $69,000 at the time of writing, BTC price action continues to battle around that area and traders see a clear need to turn it into solid support.
“TLDR; The market will need to continue to accept and hold above $69,000 for higher levels (new ATH), so for now we will see how things unfold through Monday.” Popular trader Skew writes in his latest analysis of X (formerly Twitter).
“If given later (depending on risk-on or risk-off factor criteria), we will focus on early week drops to take our chances.”
Skew described $69,000 as “the important price of the week,” noting that asking liquidity has increased above $70,000 and most bids are still low around $66,000.
“Current spot demand is still around $66K to $65K, with current market bids wanting some spot bids to go higher to $67K,” he summarized.
According to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, there have been ongoing attempts to keep the price within its current range.
Over the weekend, Cointelegraph reported on an on-chain indicator repeating a key breakout pattern from earlier this year.
Popular trader and commentator TechDev added to the mood with a chart showing the highest five-day compression in eight years. Before that, he revealed a Bollinger Bands breakout for the US M1 money supply that hadn’t been seen since 2017.
Unemployment Rate Before FOMC Week
A relatively quiet start to the week in terms of macroeconomic data does not mean there is no potential volatility in risk assets.
The first unemployment claim date in the United States is June 6, with additional unemployment rates expected the following days.
As Cointelegraph continues to report, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are particularly sensitive to employment data, which has missed expectations this year.
The alarmingly high unemployment rate suggests that the tight fiscal conditions the Federal Reserve has put in place are being felt within the economy. Therefore, the chances of these products being released soon may increase.
Clarity will come later this month when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to discuss interest rate changes.
“This is the last week of employment data before the start of the June Fed meeting,” noted trading resource Kobeissi Letter as part of an X commentary on the topic.
Nonetheless, the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool maintains the current state of the market, with a rate cut unlikely until after September.
“Even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates once this year, the central bank will likely have to keep interest rates higher for longer,” trading firm Mosaic Asset wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.” June 2nd
Still, he added, the reduced likelihood of a cut is “not necessarily a bad thing for the stock market.”
BTC price prepares for breakout from “longest consolidation of all time”
Bitcoin and global liquidity are a match made in heaven, and the latest chart data says it all.
There is currently a “very bullish” comparison going around on social media between BTC/USD and the US M1 money supply.
M1 supply refers to the sum of cash, demand deposits, and checks in the U.S. economy. Over the years, Bitcoin has been showing major dynamics against M1, and as of June 2024, it looks set to repeat its largest ever breakout against M1.
TechDev, a well-known trader and analyst, uploaded a comparison with
“Bitcoin has hit explosive highs following a breakout of the M1 money supply. The longer the integration period, the longer the execution period. “This breakout follows the longest consolidation ever.”
Looking at the charts, the breakout phase actually started last year, but by historical standards it is yet to make itself felt.
In fact, the status quo was maintained for a record seven years. This means that a breakout that has just begun should be uniquely volatile to match.
“In fact, this represents a textbook breakout of the five-year extended wedge,” TechDev continued.
“There have been adjustments to the M1 over the last five years. $BTC is once again impulsive about this for the first time since 2017. We have never seen a Bitcoin breakout like this.”
This phenomenon has not disappeared from the trading community, with celebrities including veteran trader Peter Brandt taking notice.
Popular commentator WhalePanda continued with part of his response, “2021 has never had an explosive high and there has been consolidation on the M1 money supply, so we are in for a mega moon.”
During the 2017 breakout, BTC/USD enjoyed a parabolic rise over the next nine months.
As miners reduce their BTC exposure, the difficulty increases.
Bitcoin network fundamentals are slowly rebounding after cooling sharply during the price downturn in early May.
Difficulty is expected to increase by around 1.7% on June 6, according to the latest data from monitoring resource BTC.com.
That’s a 1.5% rise from two weeks ago and should help ease the 5.6% decline that hit an all-time high.
Hashrate, the total processing power miners dedicate to the network, continues to consolidate after hitting an all-time high in April, according to raw data from MiningPoolStats.
However, miners themselves are facing a difficult situation, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
More than a month after the block subsidy was halved in April, miners’ net BTC holdings are declining on a 30-day basis, and this trend is accelerating.
As of June 2, the latest date for which data is available, miner balances were 2,500 BTC lower than 30 days ago.
Compared to the halving preparation period, the decline in balance is not that steep. According to Glassnode, starting in November 2023, miners began selling BTC, which became standard throughout the first quarter.
Kraken Witnesses Huge Withdrawal of 48,000 BTC
Amid the general trend of declining BTC balances across cryptocurrency exchanges, one thing in particular stood out this weekend.
Related: Bitcoin records best May since 2019 despite ‘predatory’ 3% BTC price drop
Glassnode confirmed that almost 50,000 BTC ($3.44 billion) was withdrawn from the popular trading platform on May 30 and May 31.
The May 30th figures alone mark the second-largest daily withdrawals from any exchange in BTC terms since the end of the Bitcoin bear market in 2022. For Kraken, this was one of the largest on record.
The move was not lost on market observers, with Vivek Vivek Sen, founder of Bitcoin PR firm Bitgrow Lab, describing it as “wild.”
“Supply shock is coming and ATH is imminent,” he wrote in part of an additional X post after the second day of outflows.
Kashif Raza, founder of Bitcoin education platform Bitinning, mentioned sending Kraken coins to external wallets in several transactions.
As Cointelegraph reported, exchanges have been seeing solid demand for BTC for several years, with total balances currently at levels not seen since 2017.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.