November was something of a reality check for Bitcoin (BTC) price action. Crypto gold managed to generate an ATH of $126,000 in October, leading the broader cryptocurrency market to think that the era of large-scale BTC liquidations was over.
Well, we were all perplexed, weren’t we?
0.45%
It fell from $126,000 and then continued to decline, erasing all the gains from earlier in the year. In the last 24 hours, price action briefly dipped below $90,000 and reached $88,000 before the bulls stepped in to control losses.
Since then, BTC has rebounded slightly and is trading above the $90,000 support level, with the potential for further declines. According to XWIN Research Japan, if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decides not to cut interest rates at its upcoming December meeting, BTC could remain between $60,000 and $80,000 until the end of the year.
The upcoming Fed meeting is shaping up to be one of the most uncertain in years, and markets are in a state of analysis paralysis. Moreover, the recent U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic reports such as employment data for October and November, limiting policymakers’ room to maneuver.
Just a few weeks ago, markets were expecting another rate cut in December. However, now the possibility of an interest rate cut has fallen to 40-50%.
Bitcoin range forecast if Fed doesn’t cut interest rates in December
“If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in December, Bitcoin will likely trade between $60,000 and $80,000 by the end of the year.” – by @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/u4gNtzIrhM
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoQuant_com) November 20, 2025
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$72 Billion Stablecoin Reserve: Will It Stabilize BTC Price Action?
Historically, when monetary policy remains tight, it pulls money out of riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.
When it became clear that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates in December, the cryptocurrency market fell into a recession from which it could not properly bounce back.
Now, if the Federal Reserve decides not to cut interest rates in December, analysts believe BTC could stay in this limbo and move sideways in a narrow price range. In today’s market setup, traders are particularly at risk because they are using leverage, that is, borrowing money, and there is little cash flow in the system.
According to the study, “If the Fed decides not to cut interest rates, the logic is simple: inflation remains near 3%, officials worry about easing too early, and missing data makes policymakers more cautious. This scenario typically keeps liquidity tight and risk appetite dampened.”
$BTC It is consolidating around $92,000.
US stock futures rose after NVIDIA’s strong performance, while the VIX fell.
Pre-market stock trading insights:
▫️NASDAQ futures rose 1.7% 🟠
▫️S&P futures rose 1.25% 🟠 pic.twitter.com/pwvWpUvUHC
— Ted (@TedPillows) November 20, 2025
Still, there is a possibility of a rebound. Cryptocurrency exchange stablecoin holdings hit a record $72.2 billion. This means there is a lot of money waiting for the right moment to re-enter the market. In fact, every major BTC rally in 2025 began with similar stablecoin accumulation.
If the Federal Reserve holds off on cutting interest rates, analysts expect BTC to trade between $60,000 and $80,000 by the end of the year. These prices are currently being held by cautious investor sentiment and are unlikely to fall until traders are more confident about the Fed’s next actions.
“Liquidity exists, but deployment is hampered by macro uncertainty,” the study found. The big question now is whether stablecoins will be left alone or start flowing into BTC once policy uncertainty is resolved.
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Fundamentals Are Strong: Analysts Downplay Fears of Crypto Winter
Markets have been falling for most of November, but analysts still believe the current recession is more of a macro correction rather than the start of a cryptocurrency winter.
They pointed to institutional interest and adoption, regulatory progress, and sector resilience as signs of the sector’s strong underlying principles and foundations.
Bitwise’s Danny Nelson and HashKey’s Tim Sun both argued that the market is far from a full-blown winter.
They noted that unlike previous crashes, the current cycle has not resulted in a catastrophic event like FTX and that infrastructure improvements, from tokenization to stablecoin expansion, continue to strengthen the ecosystem.
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Key Takeaways
BTC price fell from $126,000 to $88,000, wiping out all 2025 gains.
XWIN Research Japan expects BTC to trade between $60,000 and $80,000 if the Federal Reserve skips a rate cut.
The $72 billion stablecoin could rebound once policy uncertainty is resolved.
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