Bitcoin (BTC) begins the new week squeezing major resistance as the May monthly close approaches.
BTC price action continues to keep bulls on their toes as it proves difficult to turn past all-time highs into resistance. Could we be down $69,000 by June?
A quiet start to the week, with agency activities suspended until May 28 due to Memorial Day.
However, a macroeconomic catalyst later heats up in the form of US data printing, which, as always, forms a key focus for cryptocurrencies and risk assets.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has its own obstacles to overcome. Consolidation below all-time highs has been underway for over two months, and a solution to the status quo remains elusive.
There are plenty of optimistic BTC price predictions circulating, including a six-figure target for BTC/USD in 2024, but concerns about a deeper retracement remain in the background.
As the market reaches a critical point, Cointelegraph takes a look at what is likely to move the market as May draws to a close.
BTC price soared to the $69,000 level.
Bitcoin had a classic price swing over the weekend, with prices above $69,000, but then retraced after the weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.
This effectively filled the recent “gap” in the CME Group Bitcoin futures market despite the U.S. being closed for the Memorial Day holiday.
“Basic weekend price action so far,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in a reply to X (formerly Twitter).
Nonetheless, the weekly close of around $68,500 marked Bitcoin’s highest level since early April.
Commenting on the latest developments, trading resource Material Indicators highlighted that $69,000 should turn into solid support.
“BTC’s green weekly close was met with another failed attempt at an R/S flip of $69,000 and a new trend prediction (downward) signal on the W chart.” As part of my reading of the X post, I mention one of Material Indicators’ exclusives. Tools of the trade.
“For me, any push above $71,250 is invalid.”
Meanwhile, the latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows key areas of liquidity built around spot prices, leaving traders guessing which one will pick first.
At the time of writing on May 27, $68,100 and $69,800 were the main levels of interest, with the latter in the middle of a “cloud” of liquidity across the order book.
“Bitcoin aims to achieve this level of consolidation,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, summarized today.
“Where to buy? I lost $66,000, so I think I’ll test the range low and buy again. That’s the level you want to be prepared to buy at.”
Breakout or breakdown?
Where Bitcoin will head if it breaks out of its current range is a key concern for some market observers.
Consensus is building for a bullish turn, but just how high the market will go is still a topic of debate.
As Cointelegraph reported, calls for $95,000 in June and even $150,000 by the end of the year are being strengthened by each source.
Popular commentator BitQuant, the originator of the previous prediction, suggested last week that BTC price declines in the range should be ignored.
Another X post claimed in part: “The only thing I am certain about is that Bitcoin will hit $95,000.”
Meanwhile, Daan Crypto trading acknowledged that historical precedent is on the bullish side. A bull market breakout occurred in the previous BTC price cycle as it consolidated below all-time highs for an extended period of time.
“It is currently trading ~11 weeks compared to previous cycle highs. In 2017 it took about 4 weeks. “In 2013, this took up to 13 weeks,” he calculated.
“Both led to massive expansion later on. I don’t expect $BTC to slow down once it breaks out of this price range.”
However, some still apply larger modifications to the base case.
Among them is popular trader Credible Crypto, who continues to predict the region of around $60,000 will be next.
By the end of the week, Material Indicators was “fully prepared” for a $60,000 comeback, he added.
“Currently there is not much liquidity-based sentiment below $60,000, so we expect this to persist for the long term,” he concluded.
Bitcoin Halving “Not Included in Price”
For prominent traders and analysts, the latest Bitcoin block subsidy halving is “not reflected in the price.”
In a YouTube video last week, Rekt Capital argued that despite coming and going over the past month, the halving is still a very relevant BTC price catalyst.
He says Bitcoin is in a post-halving “re-accumulation phase,” and the resulting consolidation has historically lasted up to 160 days.
“The longer the consolidation takes here, the better it is for Bitcoin,” the video said.
Nonetheless, Rekt Capital said that once those steps are complete, a continuation of the rally “inevitably follows.”
He went on to say that a BTC price target of around $150,000 is appropriate for this “most parabolic phase of the cycle.”
Meanwhile, this weekend he suggested that it could take several weeks for the short-term BTC price action to resolve.
PCE data leads the macro week
With U.S. markets closed until May 28, Bitcoin faces little stimulus to major external volatility during Wall Street business hours.
With no surprises in the Asian trading session, attention was focused on this weekend.
Here US macro data prints yields headlined by the Producer Price Index (PCE), known as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
The sentiment toward risk assets, which benefit from the Fed’s policy easing, remains conservative. A rate cut is not expected until after September and other inflation indicators remain mixed.
Nonetheless, U.S. stocks continue to hit record highs.
“It’s going to be a short but busy week ahead,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in its weekly macro diary entry X, acknowledging the stock’s trend.
Commenting on trends in both stocks and Bitcoin, trading firm Mosaic Asset saw a mixed picture ultimately favoring risk sentiment.
“Daily momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI for the S&P 500 are expanding, indicating a lower likelihood of mean reversion. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see a partial reversal of the stock market’s recent gains, but I expect any downturn to be just a brief pause in the bull market,” he wrote in an edition of his regular newsletter “The Market mosaic.” May 23rd.
Mosaic also moved towards the future upward trend of BTC/USD.
“Risk asset classes are particularly sensitive to mitigating conditions. That’s why I’m closely watching the actions of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining stocks for further confirmation that the bull market is intact,” he continued, referring to Bitcoin’s two-month consolidation.
“Price has been rising to the right of the base over the past month and could move to new highs. “This breakout would provide further evidence that investor appetite for speculative assets remains strong.”
BTC whales remain in the game
When it comes to “buying the dip,” a select group of Bitcoin investors are wasting no time below $69,000.
Related: Traders Hope for ‘Crazy Pump’ as Altcoins Approach Key Resistance Level
This week’s focus is on the biggest of these: Bitcoin whales. They have become particularly active as prices rise and remain close to all-time highs.
“Bitcoin whales are buying like never before,” said Vivek Sen, founder of Bitcoin PR firm Bitgrow Lab, along with data from CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics platform.
The data shows the balance of active whale addresses in the last 24 hours at nearly 500,000 BTC. This is the largest on record.
Cointelegraph continues to report on whale interest in Bitcoin, with CryptoQuant describing them as being in “acceleration mode” earlier this month.
“The growth rate of Bitcoin demand appears to be stabilizing after showing a slowdown since March,” he said.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.