Bitcoin (BTC) fell $6,000 between September 29 and October 3, reaching a two-week low of $59,860, and based on intraday price movements, the decline looks set to continue.
The recent sell-off triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caused the price to lose key support levels. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is $61,318 and the 100-day EMA is $61,438.
“#Bitcoin still appears to be in a bearish trend,” Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC wrote in a post to X on October 3.
The analyst cited Bitcoin’s price action since it turned away from its September 29 high of $66,071, with some of the gains made from “FOMO buying” when BTC recovered from its September 6 local low of $52,546. Some have been cancelled.
AlphaBTC said Bitcoin prices are likely to fall further given what’s happening geopolitically and weaknesses starting to appear in U.S. economic data.
“In my opinion, it’s better to keep it power-dried for deeper cleaning.”
Fellow analyst Crypto Rover shared similar sentiments, saying Bitcoin traders would be in a bad situation “if Bitcoin loses this support it provides at the $60,000 level.”
In a previous post, AlphaBTC shared a chart that presents two scenarios for where the BTC price could go in the short term. The first is a bullish case for Bitcoin, confirming a double bottom structure at $61,370, “near the 61.8 Fib level.” This will cause BTC to begin a V-shaped recovery towards $70,000.
The second is a bearish case where support at $60,000 is broken and the price quickly falls to $58,000.
“It is probably best not to leave limit orders on exchanges while there is a possibility of further black swan-like escalation in the Middle East.”
With the current price action, AlphaBTC sets a short-term target for Bitcoin between $57,500 and $61,300.
Other analysts believe the Bitcoin price could undergo a deeper correction, with a target set between $58,000 and $52,000.
Independent trader Emperor Keo Xplus set a bearish target of $52,000, saying $63,000 is a critical level for the bulls.
Crypto Patel, a pseudonymous analyst, shared similar sentiments, saying that if support at $60,000 is lost, the next logical move for the bears would be $55,000.
“Now, if support at $60,000 holds, we could see an uptick towards $63,000. If not, prepare about $55,000 for the next stop.”
relevant: Bitcoin traders highlight ‘bullish’ market, BTC price threatens $60,000.
The 200-day EMA provides the last line of defense for Bitcoin price.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Bitcoin’s price action has formed a series of higher lows on the daily chart (shown below), remaining above the upward trend line. Bitcoin price needs to stay above this level to avoid sinking deeper.
The appearance of a Doji candlestick on the daily chart hinted at the importance of the $60,000 level for both buyers and sellers.
However, if the bulls lose the ongoing battle, it could lead to a retreat towards Bitcoin’s last line of defense – the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59,890.
This suggests that high demand-side liquidity in this demand zone could push BTC price beyond the resistance provided by the 100-day and 50-day EMAs, putting an end to the current sell-off.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.