- The next Celestia (TIA) unlock sets the circulation almost double.
- Token unlocks of this scale tend to have mixed reactions.
- Two on-chain signals suggest an unfavorable trend for altcoins.
Celestia, the first modular blockchain that allows users to launch separate blockchains using the leading Ethereum rollup framework, unlocks $888.5 million worth of tokens, one of the largest token unlocks in cryptocurrency history We are moving towards.
Pros and cons of unlocking Celestia’s $940 million
Market watchers are focused on the possible impact of Celestia’s (TIA) cliff token unlock, which will occur on October 30, 2024 at 2:00 PM UTC. Following this unlock event, Celestia’s available circulating supply will increase by 79.6%, flooding the public market with 175.59 million TIA tokens.
In addition to cliff unlocks, which mean many tokens will be released simultaneously, Celestia will also be executing linear unlocks of 5.41 million TIA tokens, worth approximately $27.36 million. There will be a public offering of $940 million worth of Celestia, and this could go in a variety of ways.
From one perspective, these massive cryptocurrency unlocks materialize into short-term selling pressure, which could mean further price declines. On the other hand, holding the majority of tokens in circulation minimizes the possibility of price manipulation by the largest companies.
Can Celestia’s price recover to double digits?
The innovative modular data availability (DA) blockchain, which has been trading below $10 since early June, has rebounded 142% from its all-time low of $2.08 witnessed on October 31, 2023. However, Celestia’s price was ten times higher. A few months later, on February 10, 2024, the altcoin hit an all-time high of $20.85, falling 75.8% since that milestone.
Cryptocurrency analysts are excited about the $4.80 support level, which was successfully retested on October 10, 2024. This time, Celestia’s technical implications suggest that large altcoin investors continue to reduce their positions, which is clearly evident in the -0.18 Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) index.
In addition to negative massive fund flows, the modular chain’s native token shows a highly overbought position, hovering between 95 and 91 on the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (StochRSI), according to TradingView’s 4-hour cryptocurrency price chart.
As of press time, the 75th-ranked altcoin is trading at $5.02, down 1.4% in 24 hours. Celestia still has a market cap well above $1 billion, but it has lost a staggering $258 million since its 7-day high on October 25, 2024. While this represents a 12.5% weekly decline, most derivatives traders tend to be short on TIA. Coinglass’s long/short ratio is 0.92.
On the flip side
- Celestia’s OI-weighted funding ratio has been mostly negative since July 2024, according to leveraged market data from CoinGlass.
- While this may mean demand for leveraged plays at TIA has plummeted, today’s derivatives trading volume is up 25% to $630 million.
Why This Matters
Changes in supply dynamics usually signal a turning point for cryptocurrencies, and the market’s reaction allows us to understand which projects cryptocurrency traders consider successful.
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