According to on-chain data, Ethereum whales have been engaging in continuous distributions for the past six months, which is not an ideal signal for ETH.
The Ethereum cumulative trend score was red for the cohort as a whole.
like In a new post on X, analyst James Van Straten points out that the Accumulation Trend Score has been showing a bleak picture for Ethereum recently. Here, “Cumulative Trend Score” refers to an indicator from Glassnode. Whether investors in a particular asset are accumulating.
This indicator takes into account the size of the company as well as the net balance changes occurring in the investor’s wallet. This means that larger entities have a higher weight in the indicator. The closer the value of the score is to 1, the more it means that large investors are engaging in strong accumulation or that many small holders are buying. On the other hand, the closer it is to 0, the more net distribution is occurring in the network, or at least no accumulation is occurring.
In the context of the current topic, the version of the cumulative trend score of interest is the version for the individual population. Addresses were divided into these groups based on the balance they held.
We now have a chart showing the trend of Ethereum cumulative trend scores for different cohorts over the past year.
The value of the metric appears to have been red for most of the cohorts recently | Source: @btcjvs on X
As shown in the graph above, the Ethereum Trend Accumulation Score has been shaded blue across cohorts throughout the beginning of the year, meaning investors as a whole are engaging in some degree of accumulation.
However, soon after Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) in March, investors began selling aggressively, sending the indicator’s value into deep red (i.e. very close to 0). After an initial sharp spread, the selling has calmed down over the past few months, but indicators are still trending in the red. For your reference, the 100~1,000 BTC, 1,000~10,000 BTC, and 10,000+ BTC groups are still in the distribution stage.
These groups are usually referred to in the same order as sharks, whales, and giant whales. An investor of this size would have some influence in the market, so consistently engaging in selling over the past six months is obviously not a good sign for Ethereum.
It is possible that ETH will not make a significant recovery until the various groups return to accumulation mode.
ETH price
As of this writing, Ethereum is trading at around $2,400, down more than 7% over the past seven days.
Looks like the price of the coin has been moving sideways over the last few days | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView
Dall-E, featured image from Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com