The Bitcoin halving that occurred last Saturday has not yet led to the expected price increase due to subsequent supply shortages. Instead, the world’s largest digital asset by market capitalization has fallen more than 7% over the past seven days, according to The Block’s pricing page.
However, one analyst points out that the recent price correction is due to uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment rather than the result of a sell-off, as the effects of the Bitcoin halving have been reflected in prices for several weeks.
“The correction we are seeing is macro and I think we can see it in US tech stocks as well. It is a combination of rising US interest rates and the onset of tech gains disappointing investor expectations.” Nansen.ai senior research analyst Aurelie Barthere said on the block.
US Inflation Still Rising
Inflation rose to 2.7% in March from 2.5% in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Higher-than-expected inflation figures were released on Friday, beating market expectations of 2.6%.
The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes highly volatile food and energy prices, maintained 2.8% for the year, exceeding analysts’ estimates of 2.6%.
Barthere pointed out that the 250-day period following the halving has historically been the period of highest Bitcoin returns. This compared to the 115 days prior to each incident and the year of non-possession.
Historically, Bitcoin returns have been higher in the period between the halving and the 250 days following the event. Image: Nansen.
Bitfinex analysts point to on-chain movements from long-term holders distributing supply ahead of the halving, suggesting that some price expectations are already factored into market conditions. However, they believe the current muted market conditions are expected as the market enters the seasonally slower summer period.
According to Wintermute OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis, the impact of the halving on prices needs to be viewed from a long-term perspective. “The halving itself is expected to have a long-term impact rather than being a short-term factor,” Ostrovskis told The Block. “The high call demand of $100,000 in December 2024 and $200,000 in March 2025 shows that this view still holds true. “It suggests,” he said. .
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