Main takeout:
Bitcoin Bulls aims to use BTC to $ 110,000 or more by May 30 to take advantage of $ 4.8 billion in call options.
SPOT BTC ETF inflow and weak putting positioning have a strong advantage for the bull in monthly expiration.
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching the maximum monthly option expiration by 2025, with a total exposure of $ 13.8 billion. The event has a 25% rally for the last 30 days, so Bulls offers the opportunity to secure Bitcoin’s price of more than $ 110,000.
The public interest in the Bitcoin PUT (SELL) option is $ 6.5 billion, but 95%of this position is set to less than $ 109,000. Therefore, if the price of Bitcoin is closer to the current level, the foot options of less than $ 350 million are related.
On the contrary, the public interest in the Bitcoin Call is a total of $ 3.8 billion, up to $ 109,000. Nevertheless, this imbalance does not mean that all call option holders are betcoin’s rise. Some traders may have sold these options by hedgeing more than a specific price level.
One of the most important option strategies traded on Deribit over the last two weeks is a “short call” often used by investors pursuing fixed income revenue, as long as Bitcoin’s price exceeds certain thresholds. Similarly, the “unbelief spread” strategy removes hedges for the risk of falling by sacrificing more than a certain price.
Strong bitcoin ETF inflow reduces the probability of falling additional prices.
If Bitcoin maintains $ 109,000, most optimistic strategies must provide positive results in the expiration of the May options. But bears can try to affect the BTC futures market as the expiration date approaches.
The total open interest in Bitcoin futures is currently $ 79 billion, with a strong demand for short (sales) positions. Nevertheless, if Bitcoin rises more than $ 110,000, this strategy can be counterproductive.
Between May 20 and May 22, the net inflow of $ 1.9 billion in the US branch Bitcoin Exchange Trading Fund (ETFS) indicates that the demand of more than $ 105,000 is still strong. Ultimately, the main hope of Bears is in a weak macroeconomic environment, which can increase risk avoidance and reduce demand for bitcoin.
relevant: Bitcoin is the best when there is no ‘healthy’ leverage. Will the rally continue?
Bitcoin Bulls aims for $ 110,000 by May 30th.
The following are four scenarios based on the current price trend. These results estimate theoretical interests based on disclosure interest imbalances and do not explain complex strategies.
$ 102K to $ 105K: $ 900 million of $ 27.5 billion in telephone (purchasing). Pure results prefer currency devices for $ 1.88 billion.
$ 105K to $ 107K: $ 3.3 billion call vs. I prefer $ 650 million and $ 26.5 billion.
$ 107K to $ 110K: I prefer $ 33 billion in calls with $ 37 billion to $ 350 million.
$ 110K to $ 114K: I prefer $ 4.7 billion in calls with $ 4.8 billion to $ 120 million.
Bulls can drive BTC to more than $ 110,000 to maximize profits, which can help you set a new all -time high. However, the optimistic propulsion in progress depends on the development of the customs war in recent weeks.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.