Former President Donald Trump has the highest chance of winning the U.S. presidential election since Kamala Harris was elected as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate in early August. According to the latest statistics from a decentralized prediction market, bettors give Trump a 53.8% chance of winning the presidential nomination on November 5.
Over the past few weeks, the two candidates have squared off in a big way on Polymarket, an Ethereum-based platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of future events. Trump once again emerged as the favorite over Vice President Harris on October 4 and has seen his odds increase since then.
However, in a separate market on the platform, Harris strongly preferred Wins the popular vote with 72% of total votes cast.
Some economic theorists and election observers – including 538 founder Nate Silver, Polymarket torture — Since users are betting money, we assume that prediction markets are a better way to aggregate information.
PolyMarket has become the most popular betting site for predicting the winner of the U.S. presidential election, leading the election market with a cumulative transaction volume of over $1.4 billion.
The site’s biggest user is the pseudonym “Fredi9999,” who has bet more than $6 million on a Trump win. There is speculation that this person may be Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who made the call in support of the former president. Prediction markets are “more accurate” than public opinion polls.
Trump has the highest probability of winning the presidential election exceeded 70% Days after his first assassination attempt, he was still confronting President Joseph Biden. Republican candidates sometimes share their favorable odds on social media.
On Monday, Trump’s odds improved following his announcement. Recent Opinion Polls Pennsylvania was a swing state where registered Republican voters outnumbered Democratic voters.
At Polymarket, bettors currently have this set: 55.5% chance Pennsylvania will turn red and Democrats will be favored to win the purple state of Michigan. fiveOthers said there was a 33% chance Pennsylvania would be the turning point in the election.
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