Encryption in the bear market, rebound in 3Q -Coinbase

According to the monthly market review of Crypto Exchange Coinbase, which is open to the United States, the encryption market has signed a contract but is preparing for a better quarter.

According to Coinbase’s monthly prospects for institutional investors on April 15, the market cap of Altcoin decreased by 41% from $ 95 billion from $ 1.6 trillion in December 2024 to mid -April. According to the BTC Tools data, the metrics reached $ 90.69 billion on April 9, and it was $ 976.9 billion at the time of writing.

Venture capital funds for encryption projects are reported to have decreased by 50% to 60% from 2021-22. In this report, David Duong, a global research director of Coinbase, emphasized that new encryption winter could be on us.

“Because of the development of world tariffs and the possibility of additional escalations, some negative emotions have been established, so some convergence signals may point to the beginning of the new encryption winter.”

relevant: The impact of trade war on stocks and encryption

Macroeconomic criticism causes encryption confusion

The report pointed out that the interest of low venture capitalists greatly limits the on boarding of new capital to the ecosystem. According to Duong, the cause is the current macroeconomic environment.

“All these structural pressure comes from the uncertainty of a wide range of macro environments that constantly contribute to paralysis of investment decision -making in the face of the conventional fiscal tightening and tariff policy.”

According to Coinbase researchers, this resulted in a “difficult periodic prospect of digital asset space,” and continued to pay attention in the next four to six weeks. Nevertheless, the author of the report said the market is likely to change its direction.

“When emotions are finally reset, it is more likely to happen quickly, and in the late 2025, it remains constructively.”

Duong quoted some metrics that indicate when the encryption market moves between the Bull and Bear market stages, including risk adjustment performance and 200 -day moving average.

Another metric is a Bitcoin (BTC) Z-score, which compares the market value and realized value to identify overreagy and overr and overr and overr and overr and over. Z-Score shows how unusual the current price is compared to historical data.

“Naturally, the greater volatility of encryption is described, but it’s slow to react, and this metrics tend to have little signals in a stable market.

Instead, Coinbase’s analysts suggested that the 200 -day moving average is a better indicator for determining the market trend. Considering the 200 -day market data, it softens short -term noise.

The report also said it is increasingly not reliable to measure the wider trend of the more encryption market, depending on the direction of Bitcoin. This is because encryption is extended to a new sector with distributed financial (Defi), distributed physical infrastructure networks, and artificial intelligence agents.

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Are we in the bear market?

Duong suggests that the 200 -day moving average was moved to BEAR Market Territory at the end of March. Nevertheless, applying the same model based on the top 50 password assets to the Coin50 Coinbase Index, it will show the bear market from the end of February.

According to a recent report, BITCOIN is increasing the elasticity of macro economic backworms compared to traditional financial markets. “The decrease in bitcoin was relatively humble and visited the price level again during the US election.”

Duong believes that Bitcoin is less commonly used as a result of this trend. He wrote:

“As the role of Bitcoin as a ‘value repository’ continues to grow, we think we need a overall evaluation of the total market activity of encryption to better define the bulls and bear markets of the asset class.”

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