ETH prices fell 9.3% between March 26 and March 28, for the first time in $ 1,860 in two weeks. This revision has led to more than $ 114 million for the lever of ETH futures, and the premium has fallen to the lowest level than the general spot market in one year.
Some traders say Rock-Bottom ETM Future Premium is a floor signal, but let’s dig deeper into the data to see if this is meaningful.
ETH 1 month gift premium for spot market. Source: LAevitas.ch
Monthly futures in ether are generally traded more than regular spot prices, as the seller uses compensation for longer settlement periods. 5% to 10% annual premiums generally represent neutral markets, reflecting the cost of opportunity and the risk of exchanges. However, ETH futures fell below this critical value on March 8, after 24%of the previous two weeks.
Currently, 2% ETH futures annual premiums suggest that there is a lack of demand for BUY for a long time, but this measurement is greatly affected by the recent price fluctuations. For example, on October 10, 2024, the ETH futures premium dropped to 2.6%after 14%of the price correction in two weeks, but the indicators rose to 7%as ETH recovered most losses. In essence, futures premiums rarely indicate a change in the spot price trend.
Ethics whales are afraid of falling ether prices.
In order to see if whales have lost interest in ethers, it is important to observe how the market price is sold compared to the market price option (sales) option. When a trader predicts a decline, 25% Delta Scriptmetric rises more than 6%, increasing the demand for hemp strategies. In contrast, the period of strength is generally pushed to less than -6%.
Etter 1 month option 25% PUT-CALL. Source: LAevitas.ch
At 7%, 25% of ETH OPTIONS’s Delta Ski suggests guilty of guilty among professional merchants, increasing the possibility of weaker exercise.
From the point of view of the derivative market, there are few evidence that the recent ETH price correction has come out. In essence, investors are not sure that the support of $ 1,800 will be suspended.
Some analysts argue that the rapid reduction in Ether Leeum network activity is the main cause of the decline in the attraction of ETH, while other analysts suggest that the transition to layer -2 scalp has greatly reduced the potential of the basic chain fee. Given the need to compensate for the network validation test, the lack of capital inflow requires more ETH issuance, which has a negative effect on net profits from native staying.
Ether Leeum Network is faced with steep competition.
Especially in blockchains such as BNB chains and solana, you can find exactly the reason for the motivation of the seller, considering the competition of Ether Leeum, which has been expanded to customized networks for a specific task. For example, there is a berachain that is more suitable for steak assets of hyper liquids and cross -liquid pools focused on synthetic assets and permanent transactions.
relevant: Timeline: Jelly token tastes sour after using a $ 6 million hyperlicide.
The success of a specific distributed application (DApp) can act as a final blow to ether. For example, Ethena, an Ethereum’s synthetic dollar protocol, is switching to its own layer -1 block chain. The project, now worth $ 5.3 billion by TVL, raised $ 100 million to support this shift in December 2024.
However, claiming that ETH prices will continue to fall because the main protocol update is only a few weeks, it can give you an early period. Investors must carefully track the practical benefits of Ethereum’s PECTRA upgrade, especially in terms of basic hierarchies and general users. Until then, ETH is still unlikely to surpass the wider Altcoin market.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.