Optimism about the upcoming US election, massive inflows into cash Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and several technical and on-chain indicators suggest that the Bitcoin price (BTC) is hitting new all-time highs.
Trump’s victory could push Bitcoin price to $100,000
Bitcoin’s recent rally above $73,000 has been labeled the “Trump trade” by some market commentators. This is due to growing optimism among cryptocurrency enthusiasts surrounding a potential Trump election.
Former president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump continues to lead Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets.
Trump has been courting the cryptocurrency industry, presenting himself as a cryptocurrency-friendly candidate, attending a Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July, and promising never to sell Bitcoin held by the U.S. government.
Conversely, Harris’ stance on cryptocurrencies remains unclear, although some argue that she will take a softer stance on cryptocurrencies than Joe Biden.
At press time, Trump had a 67% chance of winning the November 5 election, compared to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ 33%, according to data from Polymarket. However, opinion polls showed a tight race and it was too close to predict the outcome of the election.
The possibility of Trump winning is causing optimism in the market. According to teenage Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman, a Trump election victory would transform the U.S. into a cryptocurrency-friendly environment, leading to a significant influx of investment into the cryptocurrency market.
“His policies will ignite the cryptocurrency market and drive tremendous growth overall,” Finman added.
“If Trump wins, I think Bitcoin could hit $100,000 during his second term.”
Market analyst Tony Sycamore of IG Australia Pty believes Bitcoin’s trajectory reflects a bullish outlook for Trump and hopes for a position above $70,000 to build confidence in a rally that could potentially surpass the March high of $73,794. Emphasizes the importance of maintaining .
BTC price rose nearly 15% in October, inspiring confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.
Big Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflow Profit
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see significant capital inflows, with a total of $23.3 billion coming into these investments since they began trading on January 11, according to data from Farside Investors.
Grayscale’s GBTC continues to see outflows, but these are more than offset by inflows into other ETFs, including BlackRock’s IBIT, which recorded inflows of $642.9 million in its biggest trading day in six months.
Demand for Bitcoin ETFs accelerated this week, with inflows totaling $2.1 billion over the past five days. On October 30 alone, more than $870 million poured into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Cryptocurrency data provider Ecoinometrics said in a post to X on October 29 that this was the “strongest ETF inflow” since March.
Ecoinometrics analysts added:
“If you’re looking for a reason to send Bitcoin higher, this is it.”
Bitcoin short-term holders SOPR showed strength.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the recent rally above $70,000 has converted more than 94% of the total Bitcoin supply into revenue, but this has not led to intense monetization.
Market Intelligence The company’s Short Holder (STH) Used Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator shows that STH is not “overheated” despite its return to profits.
SOPR is a metric used to indicate whether STH has made a profit or loss compared to when the Bitcoin was initially held.
A value greater than 1 means that the proportion of coins that made a profit from short-term investment is high, and a value less than 1 means that the proportion of coins that suffered a loss is high.
CruptoQuant said the indicator’s current value of 1.017% means STH is “realizing some profits and has not yet overheated.”
The company explained that the SOPR value of 1.03% was “considered overheated” during the seven months of sideways price action witnessed since March, suggesting that BTC has more room to “upside” before reaching this level.
“If the price of Bitcoin passes its peak and the value of SOPR for short-term holders continues to surge, a full-fledged rally could begin. “
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Record Bitcoin IO reaffirms upward trend
Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) hit an all-time high on October 29 as the price of BTC topped $73,000 for the first time since March, according to data from CoinGlass.
BTC futures OI recorded its biggest one-day gain since June 3, rising above 20,000 BTC, worth $2.5 billion at current prices, reaching nearly 600,000 BTC, or $41 billion, as shown below.
Open interest refers to the total number of derivatives contracts that are outstanding.
A high OI indicates high investor interest in Bitcoin. Open interest increasing along with BTC price indicates a strengthening trend, suggesting new funds are flowing into the market as demand increases.
CryptoQuant contributor Julio Moreno noted in an October 29 post that Bitcoin could next target $84,000 if demand continues to grow.
“Bitcoin is close to a new ATH. From a valuation perspective, $84,000 would be the next target (the “upper” band).”
Bitcoin technology shows a breakout is underway.
The price of Bitcoin has surged within $200 of its all-time high since Wall Street opened on Oct. 29, rising 5.6% to $73,600 before falling slightly to current levels, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s price action formed a round bottom chart pattern on the daily chart (see below). Buyers drove the price above the neckline of the dominant chart pattern to $71,700 during the October 29 rally.
A daily candlestick closing above this level would confirm a bullish breakout of the rounded bottom formation, resulting in price discovery with a technical target set at $91,362, up 27% from the current price for BTC.
The daily relative strength indicator sits close to overbought territory at 67, reinforcing the bulls’ hold on the market while still below the “overbought” threshold of 70.
Meanwhile, the exponential moving average (EMA) is also showing a ‘golden cross’ on the daily chart. This occurred in early January when the 50-day EMA (yellow line) crossed the 200-day EMA (purple) and BTC/USD has since risen 60%.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.