Bitcoin (BTC) dropped 6% per share of the S & P 500 index and dropped to $ 76,700 for four months on March 11.
The stock market correction raised the index to the lowest level in six months as investors set prices at prices due to global economic downturn.
Despite the 30% decrease in Bitcoin’s highest $ 109,350, four major indicators suggest that modifications can be completed.
The Bitcoin Bear market falls 40%, a strong USD is required.
Some analysts claim that Bitcoin has entered the bear market. However, the current price behavior was greatly different from the collision in November 2021 and began with a 41% decrease in 60 days.
Similar scenarios today mean that it has decreased to $ 64,400 by the end of March.
November 2021 VS. February 2025 Bitcoin / USD. Source: TradingView / COINTELEGRAPH
The current calibration reflects 31.5% decrease from $ 71,940 on June 7, 2024, from $ 49,220 for 60 days.
In the late 2021 bear market, the US dollar was strengthened in foreign currency baskets, reflected in the DXY index, which surged from 92.4 to 96.0 from September 921 to December 2021.
DXY (left, blue) vs. BTC/USD (right). November 2021 VS. February 2025. Source: TradingView / COINTELEGRAPH
But this time, DXY started from 109.2 to 2025 and decreased from 104. Traders claim that Bitcoin maintains a reverse correlation with the DXY index. It is considered a risk asset rather than a safe hedge hedge for the dollar weakness.
Overall, the current market conditions support the price of Bitcoin because investors do not show signs of moving to cash positions.
BTC derivatives are healthy when investors are afraid of AI bubbles.
The Bitcoin derivatives market is now stable at 4.5%of the annual annual premium in the future despite the drop in prices between March 2 and 11.
For comparison, on June 18, 2022, the indicator dropped to less than 0% after 44% dropped sharply from $ 31,350 to $ 17,585 in just 12 days.
Bitcoin 2 -month gift annual premium. Source: LAevitas.ch
Similarly, the Bitcoin permanent future funding rate is nearly zero, and the balanced leverage takes a long time and balances the demand between shorts. The weak market conditions are generally pushing the financing rate lower than zero by leading excessive demand for short positions.
Some public trading companies with market value exceeding $ 15 billion include Tesla (-54%), Palantir (-40%), NVIDIA (-34%), Blackstone (-32%), Broadcom (-29%), TSM (-26%) and Servicenow (-25%) It has decreased sharply at the highest level. In the emotions of investors, especially in the artificial intelligence sector, the economic downturn has changed to weakened.
relevant: Bitcoin $ 70K Repression Bull Market Part of the Macro Correction -Analyst -Analyst
Lawmakers are concerned with merchants about the closure of the US government on March 15 because they must pass the bill to raise the debt upper limit. But according to Yahoo Finance, the Republican Party is still divided.
The main point of the competition in the proposal of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson is to increase spending on defense and immigration.
The dangerous market, including Bitcoin, is likely to respond positively when the contract reaches.
The real estate crisis is not necessarily negative
The initial signs of the real estate crisis can accelerate capital leakage with other tribal assets. According to data from the National Association of RealTors on February 27, the signing of the housing contract has fallen to an all -time low in January.
In addition, according to the Wall Street Journal on February 23, more than 7% of the federal housing management insurance loans have passed at least 90 days, exceeding the peak of the 2008 subprime crisis.
In essence, Bitcoin’s road, which reclaims Bitcoin’s $ 90,000, is supported by historical evidence of the US dollar weak US dollar and 30% price modifications of the elasticity of the BTC derivatives market, the initial signs of transmission and real estate crisis due to the risk of government closure.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.