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The price of the FTX token has surged 12% over the past 24 hours, trading at $2.60 as of 4:30 a.m. ET, a nearly 300% surge in volume.
This comes amid heightened conversation around FTX after the company sold nearly $1 billion of its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF). A person familiar with the matter told CoinDesk that the largest portion of Grayscale’s outflow was from FTX’s bankruptcy estate, which sold 22 million shares equivalent to the aforementioned amount.
ladle: @FTX_Official sold for approximately $1 billion @Grayscale‘S $GBTC from #Bitcoin ETF Acknowledgment – Accounts for a large part of the leak.@IanAllison123 Report https://t.co/9t04mPvFhT
— CoinDesk (@CoinDesk) January 22, 2024
In principle, analysts expect selling pressure to ease as FTX sells its large holdings, which account for a third of total Grayscale Bitcoin Trust outflows.
Wait a minute, if $1 billion of GBTC sales were FTX LIQUIDATORS as reported, then that would be 1/3 of the total outflow. Then the whole picture changes!!!! The sale is now complete.
We could actually get a bounce, which could trigger a short squeeze.
— Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) January 22, 2024
FTX likely took advantage of the difference between the GBTC stock price and the net asset value of the trust’s BTC. According to a filing dated November 3, 2023, FTX holds up to 22.3 million shares of GBTC stock worth approximately $597 million as of October 25, 2023.
After the spot BTC ETF received landmark approval on January 11, the value of the stock nearly doubled to about $900 million, closing the trading session at $40.69 per share.
Confirmation of hypothesis…#FTX Sale of 22 million shares worth $900 million #grayscale‘S #Bitcoin #ETFs
FTX had 22.3 million. $GBTC(Valued @ $600m from 25-23 October)
good #FTX Creditors, not good in the short term. #BTC price & #GBTCGreat for people who are buying dips and assessing their wealth. #Bitcoin https://t.co/pzWCLjuwZ0
— Simon Dixon (@SimonDixonTwitt) January 22, 2024
On hopes of a creditor settlement across social media, the FTX token, FTT, surged nearly 12% even as claims rose to 80 cents on the dollar.
Expectations for creditors to repay are growing $FTT, the price of the token on the now-defunct FTX exchange rose 11% and the charge increased to 80 cents on the dollar. by @shauryamalwa.https://t.co/Jdc7zXHjth
— CoinDesk (@CoinDesk) January 23, 2024
FTX token price outlook with exchange creditors showing new hope
The FTX token price consolidated around an important support level at $2.83. This is after realizing a rising wedge pattern and confirming the bearish target target with a dump of almost 50%. Potential upside in the FTX token price may be delayed due to excessive overhead pressure as reflected by the 100-day and 50-day simple moving averages.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a gradual trend, sloping southward and moving horizontally. This shows that momentum continues to decline. An RSI below 50 also indicates weak price strength, further emphasizing the bearish thesis.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also moves horizontally in negative territory, increasing the probability of a downtrend.
If the bulls fail to dominate the FTT market, the bears could take control and the FTX token price could fall south. This could see the price of the altcoin testing the psychological level of $2.00. In a worst-case scenario, a slump could push the altcoin towards support at $0.98, nearly 65% below current levels.
TradingView: FTT/USDT 1-day chart
converse case
Increasing buying pressure above current levels could push FTX token price to overcome the $2.83 resistance level. Past this we can hit the 100-day SMA at $2.99. Further north, FTT price could test the 50-day SMA at $3.46. Beyond this, the path for the FTX token price to target the psychological level of $4.00 will become clear.
In a very optimistic case, the FTX token price could crash past the psychological level of $5.00. A move beyond here could restore the $5.59 resistance level last tested on December 13th.
A very ambitious example concerns the market value of altcoins turning these barricades into supports. This could serve as a starting point to target the $6.48 resistance level, last seen in November 2022 before the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency empire.
However, as FTT bulls try to bring the FTX token price back to pre-FTX highs, investors are turning to LPX. Experts say LPX is the best AI cryptocurrency to invest in right now.
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