After Tuesday night’s presidential debate, cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket has increased the odds that Kamala Harris will win the upcoming November election. Harris and former President Donald Trump are currently tied in Polymarket’s $860 million market.
Tuesday night marked the first and final presidential debate between Harris and Trump before the election, with several recurring topics discussed, including the Gaza war and abortion rights. No mention of cryptocurrencyPolymarket’s bookmakers have Harris at 94% chance of winning tonight’s debate, according to their poll, but the results of the poll haven’t been released yet.
Harris’s odds of winning the election have risen from 46% on Monday night to 49% on Polymarket, while Trump’s odds have fallen from 52% to 49%. Trump has been vocal in his support of cryptocurrencies, and Harris has begun engaging with the crypto sector, but has yet to take a firm stance on the industry.
Min Jeong, an analyst at Presto Research, told The Block that while crypto wasn’t specifically mentioned in the discussion, Polymarket is making the odds in Harris’ favor. “This could be less favorable for the crypto market,” he said.
Bitcoin briefly broke above $58,000 and held higher for several hours before the debate began, but fell to a low of around $56,700 during the debate. It is currently trading at $56,797. Bitcoin price page on the block.
Justin d’Anethan, head of APAC business development at crypto market maker Keyrock, said Bitcoin is more of a “cold observer” as the debate unfolds. “The crypto market is watching but not reacting, at least not yet. Bitcoin, like other risk assets, is moving alongside tech and growth stocks, looking for direction amid a cocktail of inflation fears, interest rate uncertainty and global political turmoil.”
“The debate itself is undoubtedly a pivotal moment, setting the tone for a battle between two competing visions of the future of America,” d’Anethan added. “But for Bitcoin, it’s going to take something more concrete. As things stand, Bitcoin seems to be waiting for a catalyst: a shock on the macroeconomic front, such as an unexpected policy shift by the Federal Reserve, or a seismic shock in the political sphere, such as a scandal or a surprising turnaround in the polls.”
PoliFi Coin Drop
Trump and Harris-inspired PolitiFi coins have been down over the past hour. Super Trump (ticker: STRUMP), with a market cap of $13.8 million, is down 6.8% over the past hour, while Kamala Horris (KAMA) is down 5.7%, according to CoineGecko. data. MAGA (TRUMP) fell 0.2%.
“The market is taking a knee-jerk reaction to Harris’s better-than-expected performance in the debate so far,” said Peter Cheng, head of research at Presto. “This is evident in the timing of the big moves in PolitiFi Coin, which all began shortly after 9 p.m. ET, right when the debates began.”
Keyrock’s D’Anethan said that PolitiFi Coin could see some volatility spikes “as the aftermath of the debate continues and Twitter feeds boil over with partisan fervor.”
“Speculators may be able to capitalize on perceived sentiment shifts in the immediate aftermath, but in a world of low liquidity and reduced attention, such moves are likely to be fleeting at best,” d’Anethan added.
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