The price of the Telegram-connected Toncoin (TON) cryptocurrency has rebounded about 50% so far, including a 15% rise in the past 24 hours, reaching a three-week high of $7.10 on May 10.
Toncoin has outperformed the broader cryptocurrency market, rising 15% in value over the same period.
This performance suggests that Toncoin’s movements are somewhat consistent with those of other major cryptocurrencies, but that it has stronger catalysts that could enable more substantial growth. Let’s take a closer look.
TON demand increases with Notcoin airdrop
Toncoin’s price rise comes ahead of the launch of the Play to Earn game Notcoin on May 16. Notcoin is a social clicking game that works within the Telegram app. To play, participants are encouraged to join the Notcoin bot and invite friends.
The main activity of the game is to repeatedly tap the golden coins displayed on the screen. This allows players to earn virtual currency called Notcoin. To date, over 34.5 million players have participated in “mining” Notcoin tokens.
The Notcoin team confirmed an airdrop of a new native cryptocurrency called NOT among 34.5 million Notcoin token holders. Starting May 16, the cryptocurrency will begin operating on the TON blockchain, part of the Open Network’s layer-1 proof-of-stake (PoS) ecosystem.
Additionally, NOT will become available for trading on major cryptocurrency exchange platforms including Binance and Bybit on May 16th.
In the days leading up to the NOT launch of the TON blockchain, total value locked (TVL) across the network increased significantly. As of May 10, TVL was at 40.58 million TON, up 33% in May and expected to increase sevenfold so far in 2024, supporting strong demand for Toncoin.
The rise in TVL is further consistent with the integration of the Tether (USDT) stablecoin into the TON blockchain.
Private investment by Pantera Capital
On May 2, Pantera Capital announced that it had invested an undisclosed amount in The Open Network, citing the integration of the PoS ecosystem and Telegram messaging service as a key driver of the investment in April.
Pantera Capital claims that the partnership between Open Network and Telegram could enable the former to become one of the largest crypto networks due to Telegram’s massive reach of 900 million monthly users and 36.7 million monthly downloads.
Related: New Telegram mini app will be so convenient that users won’t even know it’s a cryptocurrency.
Since the announcement, Toncoin’s value has risen approximately 46%, reflecting the market’s optimistic response to this development.
TON price technical rebound
Toncoin’s recent rise was driven by a bounce that began after reaching a key support confluence indicated by the ascending trendline, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
This important area of support is visually indicated by a red circle on the chart.
At the same time, the rebound in the price of TON is a scenario reminiscent of a similar price recovery in February following a drop in the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) to 37.45. During this period, RSI also approached a low coinciding with the supportive confluence of the 50-day EMA, 200-day EMA and the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement line.
From a fractal analysis perspective, Toncoin’s behavior towards support levels indicated by daily RSI and EMA is mimicking previous price movements.
TON price could rise more than 20% in May.
As of May 10, the price of TON tested the 0.236 Fib line as resistance at around $7.17, and we expect an extended bounce towards the 0.0 Fib line in May at around $8.77, up about 22% from the current price level.
Conversely, a decline above the 0.382 Fib line resistance could cause the price of TON to eye the 0.382 Fib line as an immediate downside target around $6.19. A decisive break below the 0.382 Fib line would risk the price falling to $5.40 in May. This level coincides with the uptrend support line and the 0.5 Fib line.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.