– Historically, Bitcoin price followed a four-year cycle believed to be associated with each halving event.
– A somewhat stable pattern emerged before and after the halving, including rebounds, declines, and peaks.
– Although past performance is not always indicative of future results, this framework can be used to predict Bitcoin price under the assumption that past trends will reappear.
Impact of Halving on BTC Markets
Much of Bitcoin’s past price history has revolved around: bitcoin halving. Although the effect of halvings on the price of Bitcoin is debatable, it is undeniable that each cycle so far has had a similar pattern to the previous one.
Keep in mind that the price of Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum. There are a variety of macroeconomic factors that can affect the price of Bitcoin, including money supply fluctuations, interest rates, geopolitical events, and prevailing market sentiment.
It is difficult to prove a causal relationship between halving (or any other idiosyncratic factor) and the price of Bitcoin. However, by combining the historical reliability of this metric with some basic facts about how the network operates, we can make informed inferences.
Past halving events and their impact on BTC price
The most direct way Bitcoin halving affects price is simple supply and demand. As the number of Bitcoins available decreases, the price should rise, assuming demand remains constant or increases. Additionally, miners only have half the amount of Bitcoin they can sell to cover operating costs, which reduces overall selling pressure in the market.
The effect of the next Bitcoin price halving could become more pronounced as some significant developments in the space could increase demand at the same time as supply decreases.
But first, let’s take a look at how previous halvings affected the price of Bitcoin, and note the price of Bitcoin in US dollars at the time of the halving and at the peak of the cycle in the year following. (Note: All pricing data used is sourced from CoinMarketCap.com).
Half Life #1
- The first halving occurred on November 28, 2012, reducing the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
- Halving Price: $13
- Highest price next year: $1,152
Before the first halving, Bitcoin was unknown to almost everyone except cypherpunks who worked on the technology in its early days. But as the dollar price surged from double digits to over $1,000, Bitcoin started making headlines. But for the most part, the burgeoning asset class wasn’t taken seriously by anyone outside the community.
When the price fell to nearly $200 in 2015, critics declared the bubble had burst and Bitcoin was dead. This trend will continue over the next cycle.
Half-Life #2
- The second halving occurred on July 16, 2016 and the block reward was reduced to 12.5 BTC.
- Halving Price: $664
- Next year’s high: $17,760
The second halving saw Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies sweep the asset class into the spotlight along with a wave of media criticism. that much altcoin During this period, the ICO boom occurred, resulting in many unfortunate scams and failures of cryptocurrency startups.
Half-Life #3
- The third halving occurred on May 11, 2020, and the block reward was reduced to 6.25 BTC.
- Halving Price: $9,734
- Highest price next year: $67,549
#3’s halving was different in that it occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when much of the global economy was shut down. Nonetheless, the price pattern for BTC/USD was largely the same as in previous cycles.
It was also around this time that billionaire investors such as Paul Tudor Jones and Michael Saylor first began announcing allocations to Bitcoin.
In each of these cycles, the effect of the halving on the Bitcoin price was similar, with a pattern of a significant rally leading up to the halving, followed by a brief period of correction and consolidation before the major halving. bull running And a blow-off top. The peak was reached approximately 18 months after each halving. This is a very simple yet accurate description of the last three cycles.
At the end of 2023, many believe the market is now in the ‘pre-halving rally’ phase of the cycle.
Prediction for Bitcoin Halving in 2024
The Bitcoin price halving in 2024 is unique in that it coincides with the possible approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States.
There is also the issue of interest rates. Bitcoin has historically performed well in low interest rate environments, but 2023 has proven that this asset can also perform well in a high interest rate era. many market watchers Believe the Fed is done raising interest rates And interest rate cuts could begin in 2024.
Below are Bitcoin Halving 2024 price predictions from industry veterans.
- Coin Codex The BTC price reached a high above $170,000 in August 2025 before falling back to the $95,000-$100,000 range.
- bitquant I believe that a new all-time high will be reached at some point during the pre-halving rally, and that the post-halving high will see the price exceed $250,000.
- Popular analyst CryptoCon hit a new high of around $130,000, about four years after the previous high, or around November 2025.
- Marshall Beard of Gemini Considering that BTC has reached its previous high of $69,000, it came up with a “$100,000 price figure.”
Final Thoughts on BTC Halving 2024 Price Prediction
Time will tell if the Bitcoin price prediction for the 2024 halving comes true. If you are someone who believes that history tends to repeat itself, you might want to consider buying BTC before the halving in 2024. As always, we recommend doing your own research, staying up to date with industry trends, and never investing more money than you can afford to lose!
Any predictions or interpretations of market trends are not those of BitPay. All information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. BitPay assumes no liability for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of BitPay or its management. Please consult a professional for guidance regarding investments or finances.