As of Tuesday night, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the upcoming presidential election were 16% ahead of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’s at PolyMarket.
According to the decentralized prediction market platform, Trump’s probability of winning was 57.9%, and Harris’s probability of winning was 41.8%. To date, more than $1.92 billion has been bet on the winner of the 2024 election.
For most of the past month, current Vice President Harris has led the Ethereum-based platform. Trump rose to first place again early this month, and the gap between the two candidates has widened further since then.
Meanwhile, nationwide Opinion poll counting Harris leads in traditional polls, averaging 48.5% compared to Trump’s 46.1%, according to a survey by FiveThirtyEight. nevertheless, Bernstein analyst Opinion polls have historically underestimated Trump, he said.
In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts also discussed whether Polymarket may be biased toward Republican candidates who have shown strong support for cryptocurrencies. However, analysts have noted that users are more likely to bet real money on the odds rather than actually reflecting their biases.
Meanwhile, President Trump announced Tuesday that World Liberty Financial, a DeFi protocol directly supported by the former president, sold more than 610 million tokens in a public sale that began the same morning.
His opponent, Harris, who has remained largely silent on issues related to cryptocurrencies, recently proposed a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies that would protect black men investing in and owning cryptocurrencies as part of a newly announced proposal to help black men build wealth. He said he would support it.
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About the author
Danny Park is The Block’s East Asia reporter, writing about topics including Web3 development and cryptocurrency regulation in the region. He previously worked as a reporter for Forkast.News, where he actively covered the fall of Terra-Luna and FTX. Based in Seoul, Danny previously produced written and video content for media companies in Korea, Hong Kong and China. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism and Business Marketing from the University of Hong Kong.