It is no longer news that the altcoin season of this cycle has failed to materialize despite clear signs at some point. In the midst of this seemingly bullish cycle, recent data shows that there has been a shift that could have led to the extinction of expectations.
One of the defining moments of the altcoin season was the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF. Now that it has happened, altcoins have remained silent. Will that continue?
Altcoin season continues to show why it won’t come soon enough.
Altcoins appear to have resumed their uptrend a while ago. However, the broad gains were short-lived. At the time, the Altcoin Season Index was at 33.
To qualify for a season, the index must reach 75, meaning that at least 75% of the top 50 non-BTC cryptocurrencies are outperforming the leading coin.
At the time of writing, the index stands at 18, having last been reached on June 20 and before that in November 2023. This decline means that altcoins are struggling to outperform BTC, which was able to recover to $70,000 recently.
Read more: What is Altcoin Season? A Comprehensive Guide
This decline could be due to a lack of investor interest in many altcoins. If interest continues to decline, it may be difficult to find demand. As a result, prices may continue to swing sideways or even lower as the altcoin season fades.
Despite the poor state of cryptocurrencies, some market participants believe the season is coming. One of those who is convinced is Ty Blackard, co-founder of decentralized credit marketplace Magnify Labs.
Do Altcoins Still Need Ethereum’s Firepower?
According to Black Card, if ETH breaks its all-time high, the market will transition into altcoin season.
The market is set to shift to gas token/altcoin season as $ETH crosses ATH. Memecoins will still exist, of course, but the narrative and meta will shift to tokens with more “utility” or “fundamentals,” Blackard said.
However, a thorough examination of the altcoin market shows that altcoin season can come with or without ETH. This is the inference BeInCrypto has drawn after examining TOTAL2 and TOTAL3.
TOTAL2 is the total market cap of 125 altcoins excluding BTC. TOTAL3, on the other hand, is the market cap of altcoins excluding ETH and BTC. You can see in the image below that the trends of the two market caps are similar.
Read more: 11 Cryptocurrencies to Add to Your Portfolio Before Altcoin Season
So, the price of Ethereum may not be as important in the overall aspect of the altcoin season as it was in 2021. However, if capital from BTC flows into this sector, there is a possibility that the altcoin price will be pumped. If this happens, the possibility of a season this cycle will increase.
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