Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are concerned that institutional interest is waning as demand for BTC futures slows. However, other indicators suggest that the BTC price may avoid falling below $85,000.
Key Takeaways:
BTC futures open interest has fallen to an eight-month low of $42 billion, indicating a leverage flush rather than a bearish bet.
Bitcoin options prices suggest sentiment stability.
BTC futures open interest hits lowest level in 8 months
Bitcoin faced another rejection on Friday after briefly testing the $89,000 level. The move caught traders off guard and liquidated more than $260 million in leveraged BTC futures positions.
Total BTC futures open interest on major exchanges fell to $42 billion on Friday from $47 billion two weeks ago, the lowest level in eight months. However, since buy and sell positions always coincide, a sharp drop in leverage does not inherently mean a downtrend.
Investor anxiety intensified after a total of $825 million was outflowed from spot Bitcoin ETFs over five days. This represents less than 1% of total deposits of $116 billion, but traders are concerned that global economic uncertainty will weaken the bullish momentum seen in October.
Precious metal prices soar amid economic uncertainty
Gold and silver hit record highs on Friday as investors sought protection from rising U.S. debt.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a three-week low of 4.12% as demand for government-backed debt increased. Some of the skepticism about U.S. monetary policy stems from inconsistent signals on import tariffs.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced that tariffs on imports of Chinese semiconductors will be postponed until June 2027.
Last week, the U.S. government lifted restrictions on Nvidia’s second most powerful artificial intelligence chip being exported to China, which had been banned by Joe Biden’s administration citing national security concerns, according to Reuters.
Bitcoin base interest rate recovery
Bitcoin monthly futures premiums help assess whether whales and market makers have turned bearish. In neutral terms, BTC futures typically trade at an annual premium of 5% to 10%, known as the base rate, to compensate for the long settlement period.
Given Bitcoin’s repeated failure to regain the $90,000 level since October 12, some pessimism, i.e. a decline in basis, should be expected.
However, on Friday, the benchmark Bitcoin futures interest rate stood at 5%, unchanged from the previous week. Although slightly bearish, this indicator has moved away from the sub-4% level observed on December 18, when Bitcoin was trading below $85,000.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin options market could help whales and market makers determine whether they expect further declines.
Delta skew measures the cost of a put (sell) option compared to a call (buy) instrument. As sentiment weakens, the indicator moves above the neutral 6% threshold, while in bullish phases it typically moves into negative territory.
Even as investor concerns arise from signs of slowing economic activity, Bitcoin continues to behave like a high-risk asset, while the precious metal has rebounded.
relevant: Analysts say cryptocurrency ETFs will explode higher in 2026.
However, the decline in BTC futures and options open interest and the roughly 1% net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs do not in themselves signal a continued bear market. This is especially true if Bitcoin options indicators and base rates remain healthy.
A retest of the $85,000 support level is still possible, but the bulls appear to be gradually regaining confidence even if Bitcoin fails to breach $90,000 in the near term.
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