Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is showing signs of a potential rebound in the medium to long term. Recent data and key indicators from the futures market suggest that bullish sentiment surrounding ETH is on the rise.
TLDR
- Ethereum’s futures open interest and positive funding ratio suggest a potential upside above $4,000 in the medium term.
- Key indicators such as MACD and DMI confirm the rise in bullish sentiment in the ETH spot market.
- Ethereum remains on the rise above $3,400 and could potentially reach $4,500 or even $5,000 in the coming weeks if the bull market remains active.
- VanEck and CoinShares CEOs have expressed doubts about the SEC approving a spot Ethereum ETF by the end of 2024.
- JPMorgan strategists believe the SEC will eventually approve a spot Ethereum ETF in May following a possible rejection proceeding.
According to a report by anonymous CryptoQuant analyst ShayanBTC, Ethereum futures open interest is increasing and funding ratios remain positive despite general market consolidation in March. A positive funding ratio indicates that more traders have long positions and expect the price of an asset to rise in the short to medium term.
The report also highlights a “corresponding surge in the funding rate indicator” as ETH attempts to regain the $4,000 price, suggesting that market participants have been aggressively executing long positions.
Ethereum futures open interest has increased 7% over the past seven days, reaching $15 billion, according to Coinglass data.
In addition to the futures market, key indicators from the Ethereum spot market also confirm the rise in bullish sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has crossed the signal line for the first time since March 15, indicating strengthening upward momentum. Moreover, ETH’s Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows that the positive directional index has surpassed the negative one, confirming the change in sentiment from bearish to bullish.
Ethereum’s price action also suggests a potential upside, with the cryptocurrency holding gains above the $3,400 level. If the bulls remain active, ETH could reach $4,500 or even $5,000 in the coming weeks. However, immediate resistance is near $3,800, and a clear break above $4,080 could open the door for further upside.
While it paints an optimistic picture technically, there still remains uncertainty surrounding the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck and CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti have expressed doubts about the SEC approving a spot Ethereum ETF by the end of 2024.
VanEck, who applied for a spot Ethereum ETF, believes there is a possibility of rejection once the SEC completes its review on May 23. Mognetti, on the other hand, does not believe any will be approved this year, citing skepticism about SEC approval of proof-of-stake protocols.
However, JP Morgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believe the SEC will eventually approve a spot Ethereum ETF, if not before May. They suggest that without approval in May, legal proceedings similar to Grayscale and Ripple’s legal battles could ensue, which could ultimately lead to the SEC’s approval of a spot Ethereum ETF.
Despite regulatory uncertainty, Ethereum’s on-chain indicators provide further evidence of a potential rebound. Nearly $1.2 billion of liquidity has left the spot market over the past month, suggesting a positive sign. If this supply shock persists, it could support further increases in the price of ETH.
While the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF remains uncertain, technical and on-chain indicators suggest that ETH may be poised for a significant rebound in the medium term.