A JPMorgan executive suggested on January 12 that securities regulators were equally likely to approve or not approve a spot Ethereum ETF in the coming months.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director at JPMorgan, told The Block:
“In our opinion, if the (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) is to approve a spot Ethereum ETF in May, it will have to classify Ethereum as a commodity rather than a security (similar to Bitcoin). “Don’t give the SEC more than a 50% chance of classifying Ethereum as a commodity before May.”
He said the SEC “Still sending that signal “We continue to view all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin as securities.”
Panigirtzoglou’s comments allude to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s statement on January 11th regarding the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP).
There, Gensler said the latest approval only related to ETPs holding Bitcoin (BTC) and identified Bitcoin as a non-secure commodity. Gensler added that the approval should not represent the SEC’s views on the securities status of other cryptocurrency assets. He also argued that “the majority of cryptocurrency assets are investment contracts” and therefore subject to federal securities laws.
Other sources estimate that the odds of approval could be as high as 70%.
Despite Panigirtzoglou’s low approval estimate, some sources give higher odds for the upcoming spot Ethereum ETF approval. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicted a 70% chance of such approval by May.
A prediction market from Polymarket suggests there is a 57% chance that an Ethereum ETF will be approved by May 31st. These odds are based on cryptocurrency bets of $15,000 or more and not on any individual’s personal position.
The forecast is primarily focused on May, as the SEC has until May 23rd to decide on VanEck’s application for a spot Ethereum ETF. Other applicants, including BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, ARK Invest, and Invesco Galaxy, also applied for a spot Ethereum ETF, but their decision deadlines were later. .
The SEC has approved a number of ETFs containing Ethereum futures in October 2023, but has not yet approved a spot Ethereum ETF.
Post analysts at JPMorgan predicted a 50% chance that a spot Ethereum ETF would make its debut on CryptoSlate in May.