According to a Coinbase report, the macro environment continues to be a key driver of cryptocurrency performance.
Analysts David Han and David Duong cited the Bitcoin price rebound following the CPI decline in April as evidence of macro-driven drivers for the sector.
“Macro continues to be a key driver of cryptocurrency performance. The 3.4% year-on-year inflation figure means we will still see inflation growth by mid-February by the end of the year,” Han and Duong said.
Inflation remains a concern
But analysts still have mixed views on inflation in the U.S. and expressed concerns about ongoing shelter costs in CPI data released Wednesday.
They also noted that the slump in U.S. retail sales last month supported the view that the economy could be peaking.
“That’s not to say the sticky shelter portion of the index isn’t relevant to us, but the weak retail sales last month contributed to our view that the economy may have peaked,” Coinbase analysts said.
September interest rate cut
Following Wednesday’s CPI release, CME’s FedWatch tool predicts a 29.2% chance of a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting and a 49.7% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting. Interest rate traders had forecast a 91.3% chance of interest rates remaining unchanged at the June meeting.
The Coinbase report points out that CME’s federal funds futures are pricing in two rate cuts by the end of the year. “Overall, two 25bps rate cuts priced by federal funds futures starting in September 2024 look appropriate, as does a cyclical downward move in the multilateral USD index,” the analysts added.
According to The Block’s pricing page, the largest digital asset by market capitalization passed $66,000 at 10:52 a.m. ET, trading at $66,441, up 0.49% over the past 24 hours.
The GM 30 Index, which represents the top 30 cryptocurrencies, fell 3.06% to 135.67 during the same period.
Bitcoin price rose 0.45% on Friday. Image: Block.
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