market outlook #250 (December 18, 2023)
Hello, welcome to episode 250. Market outlook.
This week’s post covers Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Network, TriasLab, Morpheus Network, and Cellframe. We will also provide year-end updates on altcoin market caps.
This is the final forecast for 2023. Have a Merry Christmas, a Happy New Year, and see you in 2024.
Bitcoin:
weekly:
every day:
price: $40,971
thought: If we start by looking at BTC/USD, we can see that on a weekly time frame, the last week’s price has spent within the previous week’s range, printing internal weeks. The first thing to consider when considering these formations is the likelihood of failure within the state. This can be formed by clearing the lows or highs of the previous week and then closing within that weekly range. Given that it opened and closed below $42k last week, close to its weekly low (and the broader market outlook), I think it will likely hit the previous week’s low of $40.3k. It closes again on top of that. In this scenario, we expect last week’s highs to be exhausted and the price to remain under pressure above $45,000, above which the main resistance is $48,200. However, if the price closes the week below $40.3,000, this scenario will be invalidated and a further decline towards $38,000 is expected due to untested preliminary resistance.
Going into the daily chart, we can see that the daily structure is bearish, taking into account the close and close below the $43,000 swing low and subsequent lows. However, this was not a major swing point, so although it is technically a bearish structure, we are not particularly confident about it yet. Now, if we close the day with $40,000, that With the first target of the trendline retest and prior resistance at $38,000, near-term weakness looks much more compelling. The key level below is $33,000 if you want to clear out any undeveloped lows along the trendline before hitting bottom. . However, if it can stay above $40,000 (or break away from this low and close above it), I will see if it can bounce back above $43,000 before favoring further upside. There isn’t much bias between those levels. I think it will close above $43,000 and continue to rise towards $48,000.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
weekly:
every day:
ETH/BTC
weekly:
every day:
price: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)
thought: If we start by looking at ETH/USD on the weekly time frame, we can see that the price has given back all the gains from the previous weekly extension last week and sold off to the regained support at $2172 at the open price. The price held support below the previous week’s low of $2137 and closed above $2172. Frankly, this is giving very mixed signals. The extension past the yearly high erased the previous week’s gains, but also swept the weekly low into key support. By default, cutting continues. What I’m seeing here is where we can continue to hold above $2172 this week. It swept past last week’s low and closed above it, and I think it bottomed out before rising again to $2425. However, if we end the week below $2137, we could likely see $1850 exit before a bottom is found. Looking at the daily candle, we can see how the daily structure could turn bearish if it closes below $2137. If this is confirmed, we can expect $2036 to be tested later this week, but with much more support below around $1850. . However, as mentioned earlier, a sweep of the previous resistance area and a rise back above $2172 later this week would trap shorts and push the price back towards a yearly high.
Looking at ETH/BTC, we can see that the price continues to fluctuate between the support level of 0.051 and the resistance level of 0.055. There’s little to add here, as the narrative has been the same within this range for weeks. As we break and close both sides of the range I won’t let it fade as quickly.
Casper Network:
CSPR/USD
every day:
CSPR/BTC
every day:
price: $0.038 (92 satoshi)
thought: For CSPR, we will focus on the dollar pair, considering that the two pairs appear virtually identical.
Looking at CSPR/USD, we see that, with the exception of a brief fakeout above that range resistance earlier this year, it has been range bound for 585 days at this point, most of which have been spent above $0.025 and below $0.055. We have a bullish structure each day, but we have sold near the top of the range at prior support and the price is currently set to retest the 200dMA as support at $0.037. As long as it holds the current playback support at $0.035 and 200dMA to form higher lows, I expect another rise in range resistance from here to near $0.055. If this is a project you’re interested in (reader request, note), I think this is a good entry considering your invalidation here can be as strict as $0.031. A close down will likely nullify all of this recent structure and we will likely return to the bottom of the range from there. Looking ahead, distrust The upside is clear beyond $0.073, after which $0.22 becomes the main resistance level and the bullish cycle begins.
Trias Lab:
Trias/USD
every day:
Trias/BTC
every day:
price: $5.57 (13,579 satoshi)
thought: Again, considering how similar the pairs look here, let’s focus on the dollar pair as the structure is a bit neater as well.
Looking at TRIAS/USD, we can see that the price had a long extension from the bottom before spending most of 2023 consolidating below $4.15, surpassing that level once. This long consolidation range resulted in a tighter price curve, with 360dMA acting as support and the price regaining 200dMA as support in October. The pair has since rebounded towards $4.15, consolidating between the 200dMA and that level, and most recently broke sharply above that resistance to hit a new yearly high through $5. Given this market structure, I would never let this fade and instead consider that this is likely the start of the next major leg of TRIAS. Now, if it can hold above $4.15, I expect $6.40 to give in and the price to head towards trendline resistance and regain resistance rising to near $12 before the next local high forms.
Morpheus Network:
MNW/USD
weekly:
every day:
MNW/BTC
weekly:
every day:
price: $1.08 (2659 satoshi)
thought: Looking at MNW/USD for the week, we see that the price continues to be constrained by trendline resistance at all-time highs, and is currently refusing below the bears’ 23.6% fib retracement at the previous support level of ~$1.46. . It currently has support above $0.94, as it has since late last year, but to be honest, it’s not a particularly attractive long-term chart at the moment. We found support above 200wMA in November of last year and then bounced to a new yearly high of $2.45, confirming the weekly uptrend, but then rejected it and erased the advance back to 200wMA, followed by a much weaker bounce around the same support. Trend line. If $0.94 support holds, the pair will return to a weekly bearish structure, so this is the most important level for now. Until we get a weekly close through that trendline and back above $1.50, I honestly won’t be interested in this. It’s a much better opportunity in the market.
Looking at MNW/BTC, we can see that the pair is currently still in a bearish cycle. The most recent breakout hit a low and closed below 3264 satoshi. The price is now in no man’s land, with major support near 1400 satoshi and resistance around the 3264 level. There are still no signs of the trend drying up on a weekly basis. Given that it recently soared to an all-time high (November 2022), it may still be some time before it bottoms out completely. Most of the price capitulation appears to have occurred, but we may need to see a period of flat consolidation before another cycle begins for MNW.
Self-frame:
cell/USD
every day:
Cell/BTC
every day:
price: $0.19 (475 satoshi)
thought: Again, like the other two tokens in this post, the pairs for CELL look very similar here and I am focusing on the dollar pair. Because this is what I base my long-term stance on.
So, looking at CELL/USD, we see that the price rose above $0.24 to $0.29 before regaining support above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We remain bounded by long-term trendline resistance, but the multi-year downtrend has seen the price solidify above all-time lows and below $0.37 since mid-2022. I’m still in position here and would purchase some within this range if not fully allocated. A void would be a new all-time low and I would cut and wait for a recovery or a new range to form. However, given the broader market situation, we think it’s more likely that we will continue to split here and there and then start to reverse sharply once ETH starts to outperform. The first bullish cycle begins above $0.37…
Altcoin market cap:
Alt/USD
weekly:
Alt/BTC
weekly:
market cap: USD 441.2 billion
thought: Starting with ALT/USD, we see the altcoin market finally emerging after being stuck in a range for over 500 days, recently bouncing back through the 200wMA and forming support above it before pushing multi-year resistance to $413 billion. . Here we have pushed and rejected the bears’ 23.6% fib retracement to $480 billion and are now consolidating within the previous weekly range. We expect to see further consolidation after a few weeks of rally, but there is nothing bearish about this on the higher end. Now, as long as we can have a $400 billion-plus area, I expect that the next push will open up a much wider scope where things will get very interesting. Above $480 billion, there is no resistance for alternative investors to return to the 38.2% fib. Advance assistance amounts to $590 billion, or more than 25% higher. This is where we expect to see more resistance to alternatives and perhaps a broader market correction. Disbelief becomes hope.
Looking at ALT/BTC, we see that despite a slight rise in the dollar value of alts and huge on-chain gains in non-ETH ecosystems, we have been seeing a downward trend compared to BTC for over a year. Most recently, the altcoin bounced below support from 10.5 to 9.6 million and is currently seeing a trend exhaustion in this period. We also saw the market move slightly above trendline resistance. This all indicates that a period of altcoin outperformance is imminent, consistent with dollar appreciation in the altcoin market. If we can reclaim 11.4 million as support here, I believe this will be the catalyst to push BTC above the 200wMA and previous multi-year range support to nearly 13.3 million BTC.
And this is the end of this week market outlook – And the last one in 2023!
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As always, please leave your comments or questions below or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.