Bitcoin ETFs have pushed prices to new all-time highs ahead of the 2024 halving. Traders who have become burdened by the price have turned to meme coins as an alternative, which makes the recent market crash particularly important.
Bitcoin is currently seeing a lot of selling activity and is trading below $60,000. This has investors and traders panicking, especially after a brief plunge to $53,000 on July 4. On that day, Bitcoin’s total market cap fell by more than 5.7% to around $2.114 trillion, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has shifted from Greed to Extreme Fear.
The recent selloff has led to mixed opinions from experts. Peter Schiff, an American stockbroker, financial commentator, and radio host, said that the bull market has not yet begun and that the crypto bear market is not over yet, as it is an attention-grabbing move. On the other hand, Rachel Lin, CEO and co-founder of derivatives trading platform SynFutures, believes that the Bitcoin price is likely to fall further to $50,000 before continuing the uptrend.
According to the news, the current decline in the value of Bitcoin is mainly due to tensions in the US economy, especially uncertainty about interest rates. There have also been significant outflows from ETFs, with more than $900 million flowing out of these funds at the end of June.
Adding to the confusion, the now-defunct Mt. Gox exchange, which once processed 70% of all Bitcoin transactions but lost over 740,000 Bitcoins in a 2014 hack, has moved 47,228 BTC as part of a redemption process. Compounding these problems is the fact that the German government, the fourth-largest holder of national Bitcoin reserves, sold $900 million worth of Bitcoin on July 8 and is gearing up for a more imminent sale. The combined selling pressure from the German government, Mt. Gox, and Bitcoin ETFs could lead to significant bearish pressure in the short term.
Nonetheless, given the growing popularity of meme coins, the recent downturn could have significant benefits for non-meme crypto markets.
Historically, the months leading up to and following a Bitcoin halving are a critical time for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency adoption, acting as a “Goldilocks Zone” where informed investors typically enter the market at lower prices. But this time around, things were different. With the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin hit its first all-time high before the halving, and potential investors were even less likely to enter the market before and after the halving, which likely hurt Bitcoin’s retail adoption.
Essentially, the price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed so quickly that many investors have felt it is overpriced in the market. As a result, there has been a noticeable shift from general cryptocurrency investments to meme coins. While overall cryptocurrency adoption has increased, meme coins are becoming more dominant compared to other cryptocurrencies.
Could this be the erosion of Bitcoin’s hegemony? According to data from IntoTheBlock, the number of active Bitcoin wallets has fallen to its lowest level in years, with just 614,770 active wallets recorded in the week of May 27, the lowest since December 2018. Juan Pellicer, IntoTheBlock’s chief researcher, attributes the decline to weaker retail participation than in previous cycles. Meanwhile, the meme coin market has seen massive growth and is now worth more than $41 billion. That’s $41 billion, compared to $40 billion for Bitcoin and other major altcoins.
Another piece of evidence pointing to this is the resilience of Solana, the blockchain used to mint most of the new meme coins. SOL has recently surpassed Ethereum in terms of investment inflows, securing over $16 million, and has surpassed Ethereum’s $10 million despite the recent market downturn.
This year has been the year of the meme coin. Bitcoin and popular altcoins need to convince investors that they can bring in significant returns to restore investor sentiment from meme investors, and this could happen sooner than you think. There is no denying that meme coins are short-term investments. While exceptions like Shiba Inu, PEPE, and Dogecoin have proven to be long-term, most meme coins end up in a pump-and-dump fashion.
As the first major halving correction takes place after 2024, analysts should monitor the inflow of new BTC and altcoin investors compared to investors entering the meme coin space in the coming weeks and months. This will give them an idea of whether the meme coin hype will continue.
Market crashes like the one we have seen in this Bitcoin cycle are more important than ever because they create entry points for meme coin investors to enter the market. The price decline will ultimately strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term performance by attracting new investors, and with $41 billion worth of meme coin capital out there, it will all be up for grabs.
As the first major halving correction takes place after 2024, we should all be paying attention to the influx of new BTC and altcoin investors compared to those entering the meme coin space. This will give us an idea of whether the hype surrounding meme coins will continue or start to die down.