As the political world reacts to President Biden’s recent announcement that he will step down as the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election, betting markets, including Polymarket, are following suit.
Unfortunately for some traders, Biden’s announcement means any positions betting he would win the upcoming race are essentially worthless.
One such trader, AnonBidenBull, saw his three Polymarket positions lose a total of $2 million in value after Biden’s announcement. AnonBidenBull had bet a significant amount that Joe Biden would win the 2024 nomination, win the presidential election, and win the popular vote. But after Biden’s announcement, their positions plummeted by 99%.
But other traders were on the right side of the news. One trader bet about $12,500 that Kamala Harris would be the Democratic nominee in 2024. While her ascension is not yet certain, Polymarket currently gives Harris a 79% chance of winning, but the trader’s position value increased by more than 6,000% to about $769,000.
Crypto traders have been flocking to Polymarket in recent weeks, especially as speculation grows that Biden will drop out of the race. The site recently hired election statistician Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, as an advisor.
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