QCP Capital, a cryptocurrency asset trading company, said the spot Ethereum ETH
+4.87%
If an exchange-traded fund is approved in the U.S., the price of ether could rise 60% in the coming weeks, reaching around $6,000. Bitcoin 
BTC
+0.065%
ETFs can go for anything.
According to The Block’s pricing page, the price of Bitcoin has risen 66% from around $44,500 to a high of $73,800 in the two months since the Security and Exchange Commission approved a spot Bitcoin ETF on January 10.
The SEC has final deadlines on Thursday and Friday to decide whether to approve or reject spot Ethereum ETF applications filed by VanEck and Ark Invest, respectively. Invesco, Fidelity, BlackRock, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton and Bitwise are also among the Ethereum ETF applicants submitting last-minute paperwork changes this week.
“All eyes are on the ETH ETF closing date this afternoon. With implied volatility exceeding 100% on Friday, the market is expecting fireworks,” analysts wrote on Telegram channel QCP this morning. “VanEck’s ETF is listed on DTCC. “With a transaction expected as early as next week, we believe the chances of approval are very high.”
Implied volatility here refers to the market’s prediction of the potential price movement of Ether over a specific period of time, derived from cryptocurrency option prices.
QCP’s views are similar to those of analysts at Bernstein, a research and brokerage firm with positions in cryptocurrencies. They stated that they expect similar price action for Ethereum, given the continued influx of demand following the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this week.
“However, ETH’s free float and supply appear much more attractive than Bitcoin, which is constrained by sticky investors and utility-locked supply in financial smart contracts,” Bernstein analysts added.
Ethereum trading indicators surge
Total open interest in Ether options and futures also surged this week, with record Ethereum futures ETF trading volume reaching $48 million on Tuesday.
Grayscale Ethereum Trust’s (ETHE) discount to net asset value (NAV) also narrowed to its lowest level in more than two years this week after Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart dramatically increased the odds of a spot Ethereum ETF being approved – It recorded 6.7%. It rose from 25% to 75% on Monday as the SEC signaled 180.
However, amid newfound optimism, a significant price correction for ether could be on the cards if the SEC rejects the application.
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