Bitcoin (BTC)’s strong weekly return of 9.84% marked a clear bullish breakout above a descending trendline pattern that has been active since March 2024.
In light of this, Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital, pointed out that according to the quantile model, Bitcoin’s current price falls between the lowest consolidated price range in 2025.
The Bitcoin quantile model highlights three price ranges for BTC:
Sina published a study utilizing quantile regression models to classify Bitcoin’s “probability space” and describes three specific areas for Bitcoin in 2025:
The analyst noted that each zone represents a different price range and market sentiment (cold, warm, hot).
Bitcoin quantile model. Source: Sina
The “cold” zone (below the 33% percentile) for 2025 ranges from $55,000 to $85,000, including BTC’s current price. This particular wave has been described as the lowest expected value for BTC, with seasoned investors expected to build positions with a long-term target of $100,000 or more in mind.
The “warm” zone (33% to 66% percentile) ranges from $85,000 to $136,000. Sina noted that the majority of retailers will begin to pay attention during this valuation spectrum as BTC hits new all-time highs and enters price discovery. Investors can gradually build a position in this range through overexposure.
The “hot” zone (between the 66% and 99% percentiles) represents a BTC high range between $136,000 and $285,000 by the end of 2025, when BTC is expected to consolidate one-third by the end of 2025. Regarding each area, Sina said:
“The 33% quantile range is perfectly consistent with Bitcoin phase transitions. Bitcoin likes to spend 1/3 of its time in each area and then switch to the other area like clockwork. The majority of bear markets (33%, bull market euphoria starts at 66%).
Sina added that prices will move in the most volatile direction in hot zones, where profit seeking and overly leveraged positions lead to quick market reversals.
relevant: 3 Signs Bitcoin’s ‘Parabolic Phase’ With $250,000 Target Is Coming Soon
Bitcoin price needs support at $68,500.
On-chain analytics platform IntoTheBlock pointed out the historical significance of Bitcoin’s $68,500 price level. BTC peaked between $68,000 and $69,000 in 2021, hitting all-time highs during the previous bull market. The current data highlights a concentration of activity near previous all-time highs, with over 320,000 active addresses interacting with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin active addresses by profitability. Source: IntoTheBlock
Over 68% of the 320,000 active addresses interacted with BTC at an average price of $68,572. Therefore, Bitcoin could potentially form support around this area at higher period levels depending on investor holder interest.
However, Bitcoin has now seen a 3% daily correction, falling from a high of $69,555 to $67,000.
Bitcoin 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
On the 4-hour chart, BTC finds support at the 50-day EMA level, which is in line with the resistance level of $67,000. An immediate rise above $68,500 would continue BTC’s bullish momentum, but sideways consolidation near current prices could lead to a deeper correction this week.
relevant: Lowest search interest since 2020 – 5 things to know about Bitcoin this week
This article is written for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.