Bitcoin (BTC) missed its first monthly gain since January 2023 after falling 3.45% on September 30.
Nonetheless, there are bullish signals left in Bitcoin for the year ahead, and a bullish one will likely emerge if BTC closes above $68,000-$70,000 on the monthly chart.
Bitcoin monthly chart. Source: Trading View
Bitcoin Cycle Highest Price Could Be $275,000 in November 2025: Researchers
Bitcoin researcher Smithson With has presented a new approach to predict Bitcoin’s cycle peak price using a quantile regression model.
In the The cumulative data considered are supply, volatility, distribution over time, and survivability in all risk environments.
Unlike traditional linear regression, quantile regression focuses on extreme cases (in this case, the 99th percentile), providing deeper insight into potential outcomes, researchers say.
Quantile regression model from Smithson With. Source: X.com
He added that the current forecast is a simulation of a 99th percentile power law regression model derived using Bitcoin price data since July 2013. Researchers say:
“We can see the model trajectories and price predictions for November 1, 2025 changing dramatically (the 2013 modeling run is bright pink, the most recent is yellow), but it clearly forms a quasi-exponential decay trend.”
A semi-exponential decay trend means that the period of deviation from the true trend has been halved or doubled over time.
Essentially, With predicts that the cycle peak will be around November 2025, with a price target of $275,000.
Additionally, the above study could be improved if these deviations could be propagated through a decay period and evaluated for several percentiles. With further analysis, we expect to eventually see a cycle peak between $250,000-$300,000 in 2025.
Key BTC price support remains at $63.2K.
Bitcoin fell to $62,825 on September 30 before quickly recovering to $64,000.
Luckshuri, leader of trading platform Exocharts, emphasizes that Bitcoin’s upward trend will continue if the key support level of $63,200 holds. The trader explains that this particular price is a point of control (POC) based on the recent formation of an upward trend.
Luckshury BTC trend profile chart. Source: X.com
POCs are formed where the highest trading activity or volume occurs.
The trader added that a break above the immediate overhead resistance at $64,700 would trigger a signal for the next uptrend. However, a $63,200 (POC) loss in the next few days could completely change the trend bias and potentially start a correction period.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.