RSI hints at a classic BTC price breakout: 5 things to know about Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin starts the last week of September at a monthly high, establishing a bullish trend with its weekly close.

• Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $64,700 after a weekly close, and analysis suggests the next resistance barrier could be $65,000.
• The weekly RSI signal is signaling further upside, which could be a solid chart setup for a Bitcoin bull run.
• The market is accepting the 0.5% rate cut from the US Federal Reserve, and the mood towards risk assets is also bright.
• Bitcoin is rapidly approaching the bull market phase, which is traditionally the most rapid upward movement.
• Emotions were measured, and there was no significant euphoria in the fear and greed index for cryptocurrencies.

All eyes on the $65,000 prize

Bitcoin bulls prevailed amid a volatile weekly close, with the weekly candle at $4,400 hitting a new monthly high.

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, BTC/USD rose to $64,700 before prices reconsolidated near the weekly close.

Popular trader Skew took an optimistic stance after analyzing the order book composition of Binance, the world’s largest exchange, having previously argued that more evidence is needed for a change in BTC price trends.

“I still see a good theme with limit bids rising along with price, which is supporting the trend so far,” he wrote in one of his X posts of the day.

“There is currently around $62K of prime bid liquidity, which is significant for structural reasons. Lower down around $59K there is deeper bid liquidity, which is a solid baseline for the current uptrend.”

Skew added that $65,000 is the key resistance barrier that needs to be overcome, consistent with other market forecasts over the past few days.

“Most liquidity is still higher and there is plenty of short liquidity starting around $65,000,” he summarized.

The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows the extent of sell liquidity across exchanges, with support concentrated at $63,000, which has so far held prices in check.

However, popular trader Zell, who is eyeing a potential breakthrough, compared it to September 2023, shortly after BTC/USD hit a long-term low.

He noted along with the chart that “higher lows – major levels are soaring.”

“If we surpass this record, we will hit new highs in the blink of an eye.”

Bitcoin RSI Predicts “Most Reliable” Bullish Signal

When looking at the potential medium-term BTC price signals, one indicator stands out this week: the RSI.

As Cointelegraph reported, BTC/USD is showing a positive trend on a weekly basis. The RSI has been in a downtrend for several months.

Now things are changing and a breakout appears to be in progress. The weekly RSI remains above the key midpoint of 50, giving a hint of price strength.

Popular trader, investor, and analyst Titan of Crypto told his X followers this weekend that “the weekly RSI breakout indicates that BTC is set for an explosive move towards the end of the year.”

Titan of Crypto has given a “medium” BTC price target of $85,000 based on RSI data.

Commentator Kevin Svenson went a step further, saying the indicator would fuel a bullish move through 2025.

In a recent X post, he argued, “In my opinion, the weekly RSI breakout is the most reliable macro bullish signal in Bitcoin history.”

Risk asset sentiment rises amid interest rate hike fever

Risk assets continue to rally after last week’s massive rate cut, and Bitcoin is no exception.

The Fed surprised markets by cutting its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, but officials are beating market expectations of further cuts by the end of 2024.

BTC/USD is up about 6% since the decision was announced on September 18, with the Fed’s next decision scheduled for November 7. Stocks have made even stronger headway, with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high.

“A Fed rate cut would help stimulate the economy and boost corporate profits,” trading firm Mosaic Asset wrote in the latest issue of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic, on September 22.

“S&P 500 returns have recovered from their 2022 decline following the rate hike, and the outlook is expected to improve through late 2025.”

Mosaic added that rates would move lower “despite already tight fiscal conditions.”

“Financial conditions reflect the availability and cost of credit. When credit is cheap and abundant, this tends to be a tailwind for economic activity (and therefore income),” he summarized.

As of September 23, the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that bets on a modest 0.25% hike in November are roughly even with bets on another 0.5% hike.

Meanwhile, next week the Federal Reserve’s preferred personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index for August is due to be released.

The unemployment claims and second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data released the previous day, September 26, added further volatility to cryptocurrencies and risky assets.

The Kobeissi Letter, a trade information agency, concluded that “another massive economic data wave is expected in the future” from X.

Bitcoin Bull Market Enters “Maximum Uptrend”

Bitcoin’s bull market is ultimately a matter of timing.

Research has shown that there are many historical patterns in BTC price movements, one of which is the most vertical periods of a bull market preceding a new all-time high.

According to K33 Research, that period is now upon us, approximately 700 days after the 2022 bear market.

In a September 22 post, X calculated that “672 days have passed since the November 2022 bottom.”

“The last two low-to-peak bull market cycles lasted +1050 days, with the last 365 days being the biggest gains. The current 672-day low-to-peak performance is in the middle of the last cycle. Will we see a repeat?”

The attached chart compares the current cycle to the previous two cycles, providing some reassurance about the BTC price action that surprised many in 2024.

For example, the all-time high in March was not anticipated so quickly, and the extent of the subsequent consolidation period has also proven to be a headache for traders and miners alike.

As Cointelegraph reported, analysis has long predicted a bullish breakout in September, with BTC/USD expected to follow a standard move following the block subsidy halving event.

“FOMO” Warning on Cryptocurrency Sentiment

Cryptocurrency market sentiment remains depressed despite BTC price reaching its highest level in a month.

relevant: Bitcoin Price Strength Extends to AVAX, SUI, TAO, AAVE. Are Altcoins Back?

According to the latest Crypto Fear & Greed Index data, September 23rd received a score of 50 out of 100, which puts it firmly in the “neutral” zone.

That means it’s actually 4 points lower than it was before the weekend, which could create a gap with the price that would avoid claims of unsustainability.

But Santiment, a research firm that analyzes social media activity, took a cautious stance.

“Understandably, there has been growing optimism that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will continue to rally even after the Fed cut rates for the first time in 4.5 years,” X summarized on September 21.

“But be more cautious than usual when you see social media creating a very unanimous bullish (vs. bearish) narrative. The cryptocurrency markets almost always move in the opposite direction to mainstream public expectations.”

The accompanying chart warned that social media posts were heavily biased toward bullish content, creating “FOMO” (fear of missing out).

This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.