Bitcoin
Last week, CoinDesk pointed out that institutional indifference is reappearing as inflows into physical ETFs decline. Moreover, stablecoin growth has stalled, signaling a lack of new fiat inflows.
This figure appears surprising compared to the supply or daily issuance of BTC from mining activity. On average, approximately 450 new BTC will be mined per day under the current issuance schedule, which is based on a protocol that generates new blocks approximately every 10 minutes, resulting in a reward of 3.125 BTC per block after the halving in April 2024.
Bitfinex’s emission absorption rate (AER), which measures institutional demand relative to miner issuance, plummeted from 5.3 times to 1.3 times at the end of February. This indicates a significant deterioration in demand.
“The current 1.3x figure places the market firmly within this (passive absorption/erosion) band, where demand still slightly exceeds miner issuance, but only just,” Bitfinex analysts said in a report shared with CoinDesk.
This means that any meaningful rally would require strong and consistent inflows like those seen in late 2024 and the first half of 2025.
Real rates of return soar
That said, as market-determined real or inflation-adjusted U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the incentive to put money into assets like Bitcoin that lack intrinsic yields or cash flows appears weak.
The yield on 10-year inflation-protected securities (TIPS) rose more than 30 basis points to 2.02% since the US and Israel first attacked Iran on February 28. Last week, the rate of return peaked at 2.12%, the highest since June 2025.
This yield represents the real rate of return offered by the bond. As they rise, they tend to pull capital out of both risky and non-returning assets. Bitcoin fits both aspects. Bitcoin is a risky asset associated with emerging technologies and is often likened to gold by its proponents.
“The situation for Bitcoin is unlikely to improve without a rate cut from the Federal Reserve and healthy liquidity as rising real yields drive capital out of non-yielding assets,” Bitfinex analysts said.
Moreover, the market is pricing in higher real yields in the near term, suggesting that the anti-BTC environment may persist.
“In particular, 10-year real yields are rising faster than 5-year real yields, which means the market is pricing in tighter financial conditions and higher real interest rates,” Michael J. Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management, said in a market note Monday.
He added that oil prices are in the driver’s seat and are weighing on risk assets.
“It (the oil rally) is tightening financial conditions across the broader market, a process that is likely to continue as long as oil prices continue to rise,” he added.